• Tease Cowboys -1 at Detroit + Dolphins -1 vs. Pittsburgh (-120): Dak's back with his full arsenal healthy, and Dallas defense ranked 3rd in Success Rate, 6th in EPA/play equipped to tame NFC's top-scoring Lions.
• Potential Teaser leg —Saints up to +8: This is more of a fade on Arizona, a mess on offense, ranked 22nd in expected points added per play and success rate, 27th in average depth of target (7.3 yards).
• Potential teaser leg — Miami down to -1: ‘Phins are 6th in offensive Success Rate and 8th in ppg with Tua; Steelers are bottom 10 in rushing and passing Success Rate.
Last updated: Wed. Oct. 19, 4:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of just betting on sides and totals are over.
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow
• Never Cross over 0
• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7
• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.
Here are four teaser legs I like, along with my two favorite two-team, six-point teasers:
New Orleans Saints +8 (from +2) @ Arizona Cardinals
• Offensively, the Cardinals are 22nd in EPA/Play and Success Rate: This play is more of a fade of Arizona than a play on the Saints. The Cardinals' offense is a mess. Kyler Murray has been a disappointment through the early part of this year. They are 2-4 (0-2 vs NFC West) and have only beaten a terrible Carolina Panthers team and the Las Vegas Raiders — thanks to a miraculous 4th-quarter comeback.
• Arizona also 27th in aDOT (7.3): And that was before losing Marquise Brown indefinitely to a knee injury. Kliff Kingsbury is supposed to be a creative, explosive offensive-minded coach, but a lot of the play-calling has been stale and the complete opposite. They traded for Robbie Anderson and get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension, but I'm not sure how big of an impact they will have in their first game in a short week.
Dallas Cowboys -1 (from -7) @ Detroit Lions
• Despite losing their franchise QB for five weeks: The Cowboys are 4-2, thanks to their outstanding defense. Cooper Rush did an excellent job in Prescott's absence, but this offense is completely different with Dak behind center.
• Dangerous Dallas ‘D' is 3rd in success rate, 6th in EPA/play: The Lions lead the NFC in scoring and trail only Kansas City and Buffalo, but Detroit has not faced a defense like the the Cowboys.
• Dak will have all his weapons available: Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard, and Ezekiel Elliott are all finally playing together. Look for this offense to take the next step against a Lions defense with the 2nd-worst PFF grade (50.1).
San Francisco 49ers +9 (from +3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Week 7 could be a flat spot for the Chiefs: Coming off back-to-back big games, with the bye week looming ahead, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites on a neutral field, according to PFF's NFL Power Rankings. With the standard 3-point home-field advantage, that should make this game closer to a PK.
• Niners defense is ranked No. 1 in EPA and Success rate: And No. 2 in those two categories when it comes to the pass rush.
• Buffalo's blueprint on beating the Chiefs: Bring pressure with your front four and drop the rest in coverage. We saw the Bills do it last week — and the Niners have a similar defensive approach, leading the league in sacks (21) but only blitzing at a 23% rate, the 11th-lowest in the league.
Miami Dolphins from -1 (from -7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• QB uncertainty: Miami should have Tua back, but Kenny Pickett remains in concussion protocol. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin said if he is cleared, Pickett won't be limited in practice and will start against the Dolphins.
• Whether it's Pickett or Mitch Trubisky behind center: Teasing Miami down to -1 gives us a huge advantage.
• Steelers are in the bottom 10 in passing and rushing Success Rate: Before Tua's Week 5 injury, Miami ranked 6th in offensive Success Rate and 8th in points per game.
Favorite 2-team, 6-point teasers in Week 7
• Saints +8 / Cowboys -1 (-120)
• Dolphins -1 / Cowboys -1 (-120)
Kurt's teasers went 0-2 in Week 6, bringing his record in this space to 4-3 (+.8 units).
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