Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Player props, spread bets and more

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Last updated: Thurs. Oct. 13, 4:45 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets to kick off Week 6 with the Washington Commanders visiting the Chicago Bears on “Thursday Night Football:”

Ben Brown: Commanders QB Carson Wentz o1.5 pass TDs (+164)

• Everyone is pointing toward a dominating ground performance from Washington: But this seems to be a situation for which Chicago has to be ready. If the Bears are content loading the box and forcing Carson Wentz to beat them with his arm, we could see a few chunk plays break out against the Bears secondary.

Arjun Menon: Bears TE Cole Kmet u29.5 receiving yards (-110; playable to 28.5)

• While the Commanders defense can be a funnel at times, it's mostly to the receivers. No. 1 tight ends haven't eclipsed 29 yards vs the Commanders this year. In a neutral game script, we could see the Bears go super run heavy, as they currently have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the entire NFL. Safety Kamren Curl is having an excellent season so far, ranking 2nd in our new Successful Coverage over Expected metric, which should make life tough for Kmet on primetime.

Tej Seth: Commanders RB Brian Robinson u48.5 rush yards (-110; playable to 46.5)

Judah Fortgang: Commanders DL Daron Payne o0.75 sacks (+180)

• Justin Fields is taking an average of more than 3.5 sacks a game, and each of the Bears' interior offensive lineman rank bottom-third in PFF pass block grade. Look for Payne to take advantage of a weak line and get to Fields.

Martyn Carlisle: Commanders RB Antonio Gibson 25+ rush yards (+130)

• The value in this bet is entirely based on how much less you have to pay relative to an already low over/under number of 20.5. The market is suggesting that Gibson is 9% less likely to gain 25 yards than he is gain 21 yards and that is simply too high. Antonio Gibson is likely the back up to Brian Robinson now but the market has largely overreacted to a down day when the Commanders running back duo put up just 2.3 yards per carry against a Titans run D that allows the second lowest success rate on rushing playing across the NFL. The Bears run D is 30th in PFF grade and 28th in Average Depth of Tackle.

PFF staff best bets went 2-1 Monday, improving to 43-32 overall on the season.