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Last updated: Mon. Oct. 10, 2:25 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Ben Brown: Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+132 FanDuel)
• Since 2020, Mahomes is 11-11 on plus-price offerings of o2.5 pass TDs, for +1.67 units won. In a divisional spot, against a defense PFF ranks as the 15th best unit in the NFL, expect Mahomes to have his way on Monday night, with the only thing slowing him down being the play calls he is provided.
Arjun Menon: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs o18.5 receiving yards (-105; play up to 20.5)
• The Chiefs have given up the most receiving yards to running backs from Weeks 1-4 in the NFL. Every major back that has faced the Chiefs has eclipsed 20 receiving yards or more. In a game where the Raiders are full-TD underdogs, they are likely to be playing from behind for most of the game. Though Jacobs' increased involvement in the passing game the past two games may be a result of no Hunter Renfrow, the Chiefs' pass rush will likely cause Derek Carr to check down early in his progression, leading to more dump-offs to Jacobs. In the Raiders' two games vs the Chiefs last year, he went over this total.
Sam Monson: Chiefs -7
PFF staff best bets are 6-2 in Week 5 and 41-31 overall this season.