• Jags are filtering targets to the middle: The strength of the Jaguars secondary has been on the outside, where Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams have been among the very best at preventing separation.
• Kincaid set up nicely: Dalton Kincaid played the second-most receiving snaps of any Bills player last week. Dawson Knox (quad) has been limited in practice all week, too, further solidifying Kincaid’s role in Week 5.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Story: Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid breaks out in a matchup against a defense that filters targets to tight ends
• The strength of the Jaguars secondary has been on the outside, where Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams have been among the very best at preventing separation.
• The strength of these players has filtered targets toward the middle of the Field, where the Jaguars are especially vulnerable. This defense has allowed the second-most targets and yards to tight ends so far. The group has been similarly inefficient against slot receivers, with slot cornerback Tre Herndon struggling early in the year.
• This sets up nicely for Dalton Kincaid, who played the second-most receiving snaps of any Bills player last week as he continues to acclimate to the offense.
• Bills tight end Dawson Knox (quad) has been limited in practice all week, further solidifying Kincaid’s role in Week 5. In a game that should feature plenty of scoring, Kincaid is perfectly set up for a breakout performance.
FanDuel SGP Build: +3145
- Dalton Kincaid: 70+ receiving yards
- Dalton Kincaid: Touchdown scorer
- Josh Allen: 300+ passing yards
Story: Death, taxes and New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed dominating man coverage
• The Patriots play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
• Per several PFF studies, targets against man coverage are more predictable than targets against zone. When a defense lines up in man coverage, the better player — whether receiver or cornerback — will win the battle more often than not.
• This could pose a problem for a Patriots secondary that will be down all three starting cornerbacks, including promising first-round rookie Christian Gonzalez. So, it would be unsurprising to see Belichick attempt to scheme out Chris Olave and force the Saints' secondary weapons to beat them.
• This could set up Rashid Shaheed, who has been the game's best separator against man coverage and dominates after the catch, as well. It's also worth noting that Shaheed has also earned a top-10 grade on deep routes, so he is always a threat to score.
• Shaheed’s snap share on passing downs has increased by the week, and he'll likely be facing off against J.C Jackson in man coverage, arguably one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
FanDuel SGP Build: +2840
- Rashid Shaheed: 80+ receiving yards
- Rashid Shaheed: Touchdown scorer
- New Orleans Saints: Moneyline
Story: New York Jets QB Zach Wilson stays in rhythm and takes advantage of a porous Denver Broncos defense
• While we wouldn’t want to overreact to a one-game sample, this SGP is the perfect opportunity to capitalize on the possibility that Wilson’s Sunday Night Football performance was a sign of things to come.
• Noticeable to anyone watching was Wilson's comfort in the pocket. He didn't abandon clean pockets, as he had in previous games, and he looked much more in control with the timing of the offense. His percentage of throws in rhythm last week was nearly 6% higher than his previous best.
• Against the lifeless Broncos defense, Wilson should once again have a matchup that will allow him to stay in rhythm and build off his last game.
• Further elevating this spot is how bad the Broncos defense has been at preventing explosive plays. With Wilson's prop sitting so low — 200 yards — if the Jets can connect on a few deep shots, the Jets QB has the chance to fly over his prop and alts.
• It is also worth noting the Broncos are dead last in PFF coverage grade against tight ends and are allowing 0.68 expected points added (EPA) on targets to the position.
• I wouldn’t be too quick to write off Garrett Wilson in this one. But if Patrick Surtain II follows Wilson around on 50-60% of his snaps, this should further tilt targets to Tyler Conklin, who is playing a full complement of the snaps and finished second on the team in targets last week.
FanDuel SGP Build No. 1: + 3023
- Zach Wilson: 275+ passing yards
- New York Jets: -5.5
FanDuel SGP Build No. 2: +7900
- Zach Wilson: 275+ passing yards
- New York Jets: -5.5
- Tyler Conklin: 50+ receiving yards
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