• Bet Panthers QB Baker Mayfield u0.5 pass TDs vs. 49ers (+165): Niners ‘D' ranks 3rd in EPA/pass allowed, and Panthers offense ranks dead-last in EPA/pass.
• PFF player-props tool shows a 12.9% edge: On Mayfield failing to throw a touchdown.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
In Week 4, we went 3-1 using data to make QB prop bets. Looking ahead to Week 5, we can use similar methods of data analysis to find edges and give out recommendations on QB passing props this week.
Bet: Carolina Panthers QB Baker Mayfield u0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165 DraftKings) vs. San Francisco 49ers
• The 49ers Defense is a Huge Mismatch: No Week 5 matchup has a bigger disadvantage in passing games than the San Francisco 49ers visiting The Carolina Panthers. The 49ers defense ranks 3rd in EPA/pass allowed, while the Panthers offense ranks dead-last in EPA/pass.
• The Odds are in Favor: At +165, that implies a 37.7% that Baker Mayfield goes under 0.5 passing touchdowns. Quarterbacks who rank bottom-5 in EPA/play, like Mayfield has this season, throw for 0 touchdown passes 40.3% of the time, showing there is an edge there.
• PFF’s Player Props Tool has this bet as a +12.9% edge.
Bet: Miami Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105 BetMGM) at New York Jets
• Bridgewater Has Usually Been a Good Replacement: Since coming into the league in 2014, among the 58 quarterbacks with at least 800 plays in that timespan, Teddy Bridgwater has ranked 30th in EPA/play. Since 2020, he has ranked 16th in EPA/play out of 41 qualifiers.
• The Dolphins Supporting Cast is Very Good: Miami Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both top-10 receivers this season. Hill has a 85.2 PFF receiving grade, good for 4th in the NFL, while Waddle has a 80.9 grade (9th). They should be able to buoy Bridgwater’s stats in Week 5.
Bet: Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff u237.5 Passing Yards (-115; playable to 232.5)
• Goff’s Production Might be Fluky: Despite ranking 11th in EPA/play, Jared Goff ranks 24th out of 32 in success rate, illustrating his heavy reliance on explosive plays to generate production. We can expect this to regress as he faces harder defenses — and the Patriots' defense will be a bigger test than last week in the Seattle Seahawks.
• The Lions Supporting Cast is Breaking Down: While not having WR1 Amon-ra St. Brown, WR2 DJ Chark, RB1 D’andre Swift and both starting guards didn’t slow down the Lions offense last week, they now face a defense that slowed down back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers last week. On top of that, Bill Belichick held the Rams offense led by Jared Goff to just 3 points in Super Bowl LIII and is capable of doing it again.
Tej Seth's QB prop bets went 3-1 last week, improving his season record in this space to 5-6 (-1.5 units).