NFL Week 4 Betting: Best spread, over/under bets before lines move

• Bet the Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons: This is a time to buy the Jaguars at their floor. No quarterback has been hurt more by drops through Week 3 than Trevor Lawrence.

• Bet New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 41 points (-110): The Saints rank 21st in offensive success rate, and the Buccaneers rank 25th before they play the Eagles in Week 3 on Monday Night Football.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

If you are betting on NFL spreads, you better do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.

We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 3-4 in 2023 with the Rams (+6.5) still to play on Monday Night Football. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.

If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints UNDER 41 Total Points (-110)

This matchup between NFC South foes features the New Orleans Saints, who rank 21st in offensive success rate, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank 25th before they play the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 on Monday Night Football. While it’s early and opponent-adjusted performances aren’t very meaningful, both of these offenses have also scored the fewest points against the five respective defenses they have faced compared to their other contests.

Before Monday night, Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 10th in expected points allowed per play and the Saints rank 11th. New Orleans also places sixth against the pass and the Buccaneers have been incapable of generating a push up front in the run game, ranking 28th in rushing success rate before facing the Eagles.

Jameis Winston is one of the more capable backup quarterbacks in the NFL but has a propensity to force the ball downfield into coverage. The Buccaneers rank ninth in EPA per dropback allowed on balls thrown 10-plus yards downfield since 2020, and the Saints rank first. Explosive plays will be at a premium in this game, and both quarterbacks will struggle to sustain drives with multiple first downs without eventually making a mistake.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, -110) — London

This is a time to buy the Jaguars at their floor. They haven’t looked impressive the past two weeks, and losing to a divisional rival that was missing key starters at almost every position isn’t a great way to start the season.

However, there is reason for optimism, and that’s mainly because of Trevor Lawrence. His counting stats and efficiency numbers won’t jump off the page, but he has graded out fairly well and leads the league in big-time throws through Week 3. He’s also been hurt by drops (nine so far) more than any quarterback, something that can regress toward the league average.

Desmond Ridder was not very good in Week 3, and as a result, the Falcons put up a measly six points on the Lions' defense. Ridder will likely finish with a sub-50.0 PFF passing grade and multiple turnover-worthy plays to go along with seven sacks taken. The Falcons will want to rely on their ground game with Ridder at quarterback, but the Jaguars’ defense excels in that facet, ranking third in EPA allowed per rush and second in rushing success rate allowed.

Trevor Lawrence PFF Grades | Weeks 1-2, 2023
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Teaser (-120): Green Bay Packers (+7.5) vs. Detroit Lions & Baltimore Ravens (+8.5) @ Cleveland Browns

This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both the numbers three and seven, as is the case here with the Ravens moving from +2.5 to +8.5 and the Packers moving from +1.5 to +7.5. Because three and seven are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.

The Packers have been dynamic offensively despite missing their best offensive lineman and wide receiver this past week against the Saints. Per Timo Riske's noise-canceled score metric, the Packers should have won by double digits and scored 28 points. Green Bay ranks fifth in EPA per early-down passing play, even ahead of the Lions. The Packers have a healthy pass rush that ranks in the top 10 in PFF grade this season, and Jared Goff has been one of the worst at leveraging movement to produce when under duress.

The Ravens managed to lose to Gardner Minshew and the Colts this past week in what was a truly anemic offensive performance. In this Week 4 divisional matchup, they have the better quarterback but will be facing a great Browns pass rush featuring the NFL's highest-graded pass rusher so far in Myles Garrett. However, the Browns have not faced a shifty player of Lamar Jackson‘s caliber yet, and that will allow the Ravens to put the Browns' defense to the test for the first time this season. Garrett’s lowest-graded pass rush game last season came in his one matchup against Jackson.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants OVER 45 (-110)

The Seahawks' and Giants' defenses have not been good at all this season. Both teams invested early picks into their secondary but have yet to see the returns come through.

The Seahawks' defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play, 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in dropback success rate allowed. They also rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate and the bottom five in sack rate. In Week 3, they allowed Adam Thielen to rack up 11 catches for 145 yards.

The Giants' defense hasn’t been much better, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play, 30th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 21st in dropback success rate allowed. Additionally, their defensive scheme revolves around blitzing, where they rank second in usage rate. This isn’t something we foresee playing in their favor this game. Blitzing forces them to leave their cornerbacks in single coverage, which will likely end in success for Seattle, given that their wide receivers are much better than the Giants' cornerback room.

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