NFL Week 4 Bets: Matchups to target

• Rams can attack Philadelphia’s coverage: Los Angeles has forced coverage mistakes at a rate 8% higher than any other team over the past two seasons, while Philadelphia ranks around league average in perfect coverage.

• Garrett Wilson draws heavy man coverage: Chicago has played man coverage on 39.8% of its snaps, the NFL’s second-highest rate, while Wilson ranks fourth in yards per route run against man.

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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works still shape discussions and influence analysis, this piece focuses on how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and on uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.

Los Angeles Rams to pick apart the Eagles' coverage

The Eagles might still be priced as a top defensive unit, but they have been merely average at generating disruption pressure (plays where pressure prevents the quarterback from progressing through his reads) and perfect coverage (when every defender executes his assignment without a mistake).

This is an area we’ve studied at PFF, with the data showing that perfect coverage goes a long way toward influencing the outcome of pass plays.

And with the Eagles ranking almost exactly league average in perfect coverage, they now face a Rams offense that has forced more coverage mistakes than any other team over the past two seasons. Los Angeles has forced coverage mistakes at a rate 8% higher than the second-best team over that span.

And Stafford has been terrific when those mistakes occur, ranking around the 75th percentile in yards per attempt on plays with a coverage mistake.

For an Eagles defense that has generated much of its market value from its pass defense, particularly its ability to play sticky coverage, there exists an opportunity for Stafford, certainly with star wideout Puka Nacua expected to be back, to frequently drop back and find coverage mistakes to take advantage of.

Betting tips: I’ll be on the Rams and Stafford in Week 4.

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Garrett Wilson gets the man-coverage game Chicago actually plays

One of our studies at PFF examined the differences between man and zone coverage. We found that man coverage produces a wider range of outcomes, largely because it creates more true one-on-one situations. Talent tends to win in those matchups: Better cornerbacks beat lesser wide receivers, and better wide receivers beat lesser cornerbacks.

That makes Chicago an interesting defense to target. The Bears have played man coverage on 39.8% of their snaps through three weeks, the second-highest rate in the NFL and nearly double the league average of 20.4%.

They have also played single coverage on 51.8% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, while deploying single-high coverage at the seventh-highest rate (62.2%).

This is exactly where Garrett Wilson has dominated. He ranks fourth in yards per route run against man coverage, and the Bears simply don’t have anyone who matches up particularly well with him or the rest of the Jets’ receiving corps.

All three Bears cornerbacks rank near the bottom of the league in yards per route run allowed against man coverage, giving Wilson and the Jets a significant advantage. And with Kenyon Sadiq breaking out last week, the matchup isn’t much better for Chicago elsewhere. The Bears’ linebackers and safeties have also struggled in man coverage.

As discussed earlier, the wider distribution of outcomes against man coverage also leads to more deep passes and explosive plays. That plays directly into the strength of a Jets offense that has relied heavily on those plays to generate its production.

Jets quarterback Geno Smith hasn’t thrown deep often, but he's been dominant when he does. He trails only Michael Penix Jr.’s Week 3 performance — a one-game sample — for the league's best mark in EPA on deep passes this season. That level of efficiency obviously won’t sustain over a full season, but he now faces a Bears defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in both explosive plays allowed and EPA allowed on deep passes.

Betting tips: I’ll once again be on the Jets: Geno passing overs, Wilson overs and SGPs built around the Jets finding success through the air.