• Bet Bijan Robinson over 78.5 rushing and receiving yards: Tyler Allgeier may seem like a threat to Robinson after Week 1, but Robinson was, and still is, the definitive first choice for a team that we know will run the ball a lot.
• Bet Anthony Richardson over 41.5 rushing yards: The Texans should produce plenty of quarterback pressure, which is likely to lead to more scramble opportunities.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Thursday Night Football Recap
The Vikings and Eagles game on Thursday night followed the predicted pattern. Minnesota was forced into a one-dimensional offense because the interior offensive line was getting run over, and the run game suffered mightily as a result. But despite limited rushing offensive success, the Vikings put up big offensive numbers and were beaten by one score for the second week in a row.
The Eagles' offense looks transformed under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. The run game was working, and they stuck to it en route to D’Andre Swift having a career night and 200 yards of offense on his own. Two deep balls to DeVonta Smith covered what was a fairly poor passing output for the second week in a row for Jalen Hurts, but he did manage two signature quarterback-push touchdowns. Our Thursday Night Football bets went 3-0, taking the island game and Sunday main slate write-ups to 7-3 on the season (average odds -114).
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans — Anthony Richardson Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Shane Steichen is more than willing to put the ball in his quarterback's hands and let him run the football. He did it with Jalen Hurts, and he will do it with Anthony Richardson, who we can all agree is a more athletic, dynamic runner than Hurts and will be able to better exploit the running lanes that appear on the edge. In Week 1 against the Jaguars, he had 10 total rush attempts — three of which were within Jacksonville's 10-yard line. One was a quarterback sneak on fourth-and-1, and four were scrambles.
Richardson's designed rushing upside was somewhat limited in the opener, but he showed a willingness to leave the pocket quickly if a receiver wasn’t open. And his average depth of target being just 5.3 yards suggests the game plan was to find the shallow route or find a running lane. The Jaguars recorded a very low pass-rush win rate against the Colts, but the Texans should do a better job at getting pressure, which is likely to lead to more scramble opportunities. Jalen Hurts’ designed run usage had a high floor, and we can expect Richardson to see that kind of activity in this offense in time.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons — Bijan Robinson Over 78.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Tyler Allgeier may seem like a threat to Bijan Robinson after Week 1, but Robinson was, and still is, the definitive first choice for a team that we know will run the ball a lot. In the first half last week on first, second or third down, Robinson out-snapped Allgeier 17-to-8. That ratio was 9-to-7 in the third quarter, and Allgeier had 10 snaps to Robinson’s four in the final frame. Robinson garnering six targets and 10 rushing attempts in what was close to being just three quarters of football (two touches in the fourth quarter) shows the level at which the Falcons will get him involved in all aspects of this offense.
The Packers did a good job at shutting down the Bears' rushing production in Week 1, with only quarterback Justin Fields‘ scrambles doing any damage, but there is a world of difference between Chicago's offensive line and that of the Falcons, who should better control running lanes.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans — Over 45.5 (-110 Caesars)
The defensive frailties of these two teams were on full display in Week 1. The Chargers gave up more than 10 yards per coverage snap to the Dolphins, and a ridiculous 37% of Miami's passing plays went for 15-plus yards. The Titans allowed eight yards per coverage snap to the Saints (fourth worst) and surrendered a 15-plus-yard play on 21.1% of coverage snaps (second worst).
There are also important injuries on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. Joey Bosa is questionable for the Chargers and put in only one limited practice all week due to a hamstring injury, so he is unlikely to be 100% even if he gets the go-ahead. Linebacker Eric Kendricks is already ruled out. The Titans are obviously not as explosive as the Dolphins, but injuries to key players in the box open up the possibilities for a run-first offense. DeAndre Hopkins has not practiced all week, but that is not uncommon for him in recent years. He is likely to be a full go.
The defense is a big concern for the Titans, however, because starting cornerback Kristian Fulton and starting safety Amani Hooker, both of whom played last week in a terrible defensive team performance, are already ruled out. Sean Murphy-Bunting posted a good grade in a well-coached Buccaneers defense last year but earned 60.4 and 56.9 coverage grades in the two years prior. He will be starting opposite Kindle Vildor, who has only once in three years managed to post a PFF grade in the 50s.
The Chargers are without star running back Austin Ekeler, but Joshua Kelley had an excellent Week 1 performance and will have no issues filling in. While the Titans limited the Saints to 2.6 yards per carry, they had a negatively graded run defender on 69.2% of their plays (30th of 32) and may have significantly overperformed despite the low yardage against average. For context, the three teams that had the same or worse negative grade rates gave up 6.8 (Bills), 5.21 (Saints) and 5.43 (Panthers) yards per carry. The Chargers' deep game should find a home at a good rate this week against this secondary, and their run game may be undervalued against a team that overperformed in Week 1.
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