• Nick Mullens returns as the Vikings' starting quarterback: In terms of EPA, Mullens has been very productive and is a significant upgrade from Hall and former Kirk Cousins replacement Joshua Dobbs.
• Bet TE Trey McBride to go OVER 54.5 receiving yards: He has blossomed into the Cardinals' top target with Kyler Murray under center.
• $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
The most impactful Sunday of the NFL season has arrived. The playoff picture will be finalized in one of the wildest seasons in recent history.
In this article, we will back an underrated backup quarterback who has a real chance to pull off an upset. We will also back a tight end to produce an impressive game thanks to key schematic factors. Let’s get into it.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3.5, 46)
After Jaren Hall got the start in Week 17, Nick Mullens returns to the starting lineup for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18. On his limited opportunities, Mullens has shown a boom-or-bust play style that creates a lot of big plays and a lot of turnovers. However, in terms of EPA, Mullens has been very productive and is a significant upgrade from Hall and former Kirk Cousins replacement Joshua Dobbs.
With Mullens under center, the Vikings can move the ball against a Lions secondary that has allowed the fifth-most EPA per dropback and has also graded out as the fifth-worst unit in coverage. Detroit simply doesn’t have the personnel to deal with the explosiveness of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who are both in line for productive days with a quarterback who is willing to push the ball down the field.
On the other side, Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme should be able to disrupt Jared Goff, who needs clean pockets to thrive. Among qualified quarterbacks, Goff has the fifth-greatest difference between his EPA per dropback when pressured and when not. Minnesota should be able to confuse Goff enough at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the rhythm of the Lions' passing offense.
Regarding motivation, the Vikings will be going all out, as they still have a small chance of making the playoffs. The Lions’ situation is more uncertain, as they can either be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, depending on Sunday’s results.
Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 (to +3)
Back Mullens to produce enough offense to cover this spread against a Lions team that has a difficult schematic matchup.
Player Prop Best Bet: Trey McBride OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
The tight end has blossomed into the Cardinals' top target with Kyler Murray under center. Murray has loved finding McBride when defenses play zone, as his target share skyrockets to 29.5% against those looks.
McBride’s efficiency has also gotten a boost when facing zone, against which he averages 8.1 yards per target compared to just 3.6 against man coverage. Against a Seahawks defense that plays zone at the second-highest rate in the NFL, McBride should see plenty of volume.
Back McBride to clear this total and sprinkle on the exciting tight end to eclipse some higher numbers at plus money.
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