Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 15 Betting: Best spread, over/under bets before lines move

2TB8DAW Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks to pass during an NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

• Bet on the Falcons (-3) to keep the Panthers' losing streak going: The Panthers rank dead last in EPA allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed. If there’s anything we know about the Falcons, it’s that head coach Arthur Smith loves to establish the run.

• Bet on the Rams (over 27.5 team total) to carve up the Commanders: The Rams' dropback offense can generate explosive plays very easily thanks to Matthew Stafford’s arm talent and ability to fit tight-window balls into his receivers’ hands.

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If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.

We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 22-18 (+3.3 units) this season with both of last week’s bets still to come on Monday Night Football.

Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.

If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.


Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are more than bad. They rank dead last in expected points added per early-down pass play this season, meaning they will need to throw against a Falcons secondary that has played well as of late.

Yes, we are supporting Desmond Ridder as a road favorite. Ridder ranks just 34th out of 36 quarterbacks in PFF grade, but Bryce Young sits at 36th.

Have some faith in the Falcons here because Drake London has played extremely well lately, with his two highest-graded games of the season coming in the past three weeks. London will be on the winning end of mismatches against Panthers cornerbacks Donte Jackson (64.4 PFF grade, 61st) and Troy Hill (62.2 PFF grade, 70th).

The Panthers also struggle immensely to stop the run, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed. If there’s anything we know about the Falcons, it’s that head coach Arthur Smith loves to establish the run. The Falcons have a -10.9% pass rate over expected, which is the lowest mark in the NFL.

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Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We’re riding with the Green Bay Packers before their game on Monday night, as the value on this spread is just too good to pass up. From Weeks 9 to 13, the Packers ranked fourth in EPA per play and 14th on defense after games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs over the span. Young talents across the roster have improved significantly this season, and quarterback Jordan Love appears to have found his stride, ranking fourth in PFF grade (89.9), fifth in big-time throw rate (7.5%) and the bottom 10 in turnover-worthy play rate.

Over this span, the Packers rank second in EPA per dropback and fourth in success rate on passes thrown between the numbers, an area where the Buccaneers have been getting carved up weekly. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom 10 in EPA per dropback allowed on passes thrown between the numbers, with the third-worst explosive play rate allowed.

Baker Mayfield has completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in consecutive weeks against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons defenses, and pressure from the interior has been a big issue. Tampa’s interior has allowed the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL, whereas Green Bay has a 14.8% pressure rate when players are lined up between the tackles this season, ranking fourth best in the NFL.


Los Angeles Rams OVER 27.5 Team Total vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders' defense has been one of the worst in football this season, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback (0.211). When looking only at games after the Chase Young and Montez Sweat trades, their EPA allowed per dropback falls to 0.239. Washington has allowed 31-plus points in three straight games, including a 31-point performance to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.

The Rams have one of the hottest offenses in the NFL, scoring 31-plus points in their past three games while also ranking fourth in EPA per play since their bye week. They also just had a great performance against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL's top defenses.

The Rams' dropback offense can generate explosive plays very easily thanks to Matthew Stafford’s arm talent and ability to fit tight-window balls into his receivers’ hands. The Commanders have allowed the most explosive passes of any offense in the league this year — a trend that should continue this game.

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