• Bet Titans 1H moneyline at Packers: Tennessee leads the NFL in scripted offensive rushing EPA and are above league average on passing plays; Green Bay grades out No. 24 in PFF run defense.
• Mike Vrabel will exploit this mismatch as long as possible, potentially opening up an in-game middle opportunity if Green Bay is forced into catchup mode.
• Bet Aaron Rodgers o242.5 pass yards: A Titans secondary relying on rookie Roger McCreary and journeyman Terrance Mitchell at cornerback will be targeted by Rogers more than PFF's third-graded run defense.
Last updated: Nov. 17, 12:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Both teams in this Thursday night matchup got off to rough starts this season, but with decent performances in Week 10, this should be a hotly-contested matchup as both clubs need to continue their recent winning ways as the playoff race heats up.
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• After sitting at Packers -4.5 in the preseason: There was a sizable correction to -1.5 on the lookahead line, with the Titans much closer to their lofty preseason expectations. The spread movement since has been entirely toward the Packers, who settled at -3 shortly after their impressive home victory against the Dallas Cowboys.
Minus-3 is where the majority of NFL games land — and books rightfully gravitate toward that number.
• Titans moneyline is preferred approach to TEN -3: PFF Greenline shows slight value on the spread: But because of the push probability and likelihood of landing on -2 and -1, the Titans moneyline is the better approach.
• Tennessee leads the NFL in scripted offensive rushing EPA and are above league average on passing plays: Thus, the narrative seems relatively straightforward with Tennessee ideally jumping out to an early lead on a successful first drive featuring Derrick Henry, a consistent recipe for the Titans' success this season.
• Outside of their WR situation, the Packers' biggest letdown spot has been a run defense that ranks 24th in PFF grade: Mike Vrabel, better than any other coach, knows to pick at mismatches until something breaks, and if that happens early, Green Bay might be in catchup mode for the rest of the game. This could set up for a potential middle opportunity in-game, with the Titans' secondary further hampered by injury, and a Packers passing unit that is coming off its best 2022 performance.
• Tennessee's first half moneyline is my favorite approach to playing this narrative: And if Green Bay flashes some potential passing the ball could look for an in-game or second half number if they are down heading into the third quarter.
Bet: Titans 1H moneyline (+150)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +135
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props Thursday night:
Bet: Aaron Rodgers — Over 242.5 passing yards (-101)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 247.5
• PFF's top-down models point toward Aaron Rodgers playing catchup on Thursday night: And PFF’s play-by-play simulation sees the Packers forced to throw no matter the game script.
• This fits with the strengths of the Titans defense (No. 3 in PFF run defense grade): Tennessee's front seven should be intact and healthy, which is a lot more than can be said for its secondary unit now relying heavily on rookie Roger McCreary and journeyman former seventh-round pick Terrance Mitchell. Weather shouldn’t impact the passing performance for either team, but in a primetime spot in the cold, expect a vintage regular-season performance from Aaron Rodgers that may not be hypersensitive to how the game script actually plays out.
Bet: Ryan Tannehill — Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+210)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +190
• No more enjoyable primetime NFL sweat than u0.5 passing touchdowns for an offense relying heavily on workhorse RB: It continues to cash and be one of the most profitable prop-betting angles so far in 2022. Again it doesn’t need to happen 50% of the time given the heavy plus price, with a 32.3% breakeven expectation on the best price available.
• PFF’s top-down player prop tool finds nearly a 17% edge at the +210 price: With the bet cashing almost 50% of the time. PFF’s play-by-play simulation is less certain about this outcome, but it still finds enough value to make it a worthwhile bet. One or two Derrick Henry totes in the red zone should be the preferred approach and allow us to cash this one, even if the Titans offense moves the football well.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• We’ve established a pretty good SGP base given the expectations Thursday: Tennessee leading early and Rodgers forced to throw pays out +475 in a one-game parlay on BetMGM, when taking the Titans 1st half moneyline and folding in Rodgers 275+ passing yards at a plus price.
BetMGM OGP build (+475)
Titans First Half ML
Aaron Rodgers 275+ Passing Yards