Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Matchup angles to bet, including Josh Allen's matchup with the vaunted Jets defense

2T75X7C Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates after completing a two-point conversion to Gabe Davis (13) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Monday, Nov. 13, 2023, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.

While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.

Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle. 

Matchup Angle: Las Vegas Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell struggles against the Miami Dolphins pass rush

No quarterback has scrambled less than Aidan O’Connell this season. As we studied this summer, this makes him far more situation-sensitive than your typical quarterback. And this should be considered stable, given his traits.

O’Connell has been unable to extend plays under pressure and has taken sacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL when pressured.

The Miami Dolphins have been one of the best teams in the league at generating pressure, doing so 40% of the time, the fifth-best rate in the NFL.

Compounding the issue here is that pressure rates tend to increase in obvious passing situations. And the Raiders might find themselves in many passing situations as huge underdogs against an explosive Miami offense. This would only magnify the already present matchup advantage the Dolphins have.

What makes this matchup angle particularly appealing is what it could mean for the offense if Miami can shut down the Raiders' attack. If the Dolphins force quick three-and-outs and stall many drives, this would mean an increase in play volume that would boost the outlooks of Miami's offensive players, as well.

Bets to consider: Miami Dolphins spread, Las Vegas Raiders team total under, Aidan O'Connell passing yards under and some same-game parlays baking in the Miami Dolphins' boost in play volume.

Matchup Angle: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s ability to create against perfect coverage mitigates the New York Jets‘ defensive matchup advantage

The Jets defense has been terrific this season, with the team dominating in coverage. Over the last five games, New York has perfectly covered plays nearly 50% of the time, the best mark in the NFL.

In a 2022 article, PFF outlined how perfect coverage can heavily influence offensive performance, as an average team performs like the very worst in the NFL against perfect coverage.

But against star QB Josh Allen, that matters a bit less, and the base rates of success are far different for Allen and the Bills. Only Patrick Mahomes has been better at creating positive plays when the defense generates perfect coverage.

The market is expecting the Jets to slow down the Bills relative to the Bills' median outcomes. But the Jets' defensive matchup advantage is slightly mitigated, as Allen can extend plays enough to avoid sacks and break the perfect coverage, as well as use his legs to scramble for positive yards.

Bets to consider: Bills team total overs, Josh Allen passing yards overs, Bills alt spreads.

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