NFL Week 1 Single-Game Parlays: Bet on Dak Prescott to carve up the Giants' blitz-heavy defense

2KEX6H2 November 13, 2022: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) during the NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Darren Lee/CSM/Sipa USA(Credit Image: © Darren Lee/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA)

• Bet on Dak Prescott to carve up the New York Giants defense: Wink Martindale's defenses have always been extremely blitz- and man-heavy. Dak Prescott should be well-equipped to handle the test, though, as he has been one of the league's most dominant quarterbacks against the blitz since entering the NFL

• The Saints should dominate the Titans through the air: On average, teams averaged 0.3 expected points added (EPA) more passing against the Titans than running against them, by far the biggest gap in the NFL last year. And the personnel on defense remains mostly the same: They have a stout defensive front, but no cornerback was even above average in preventing separation.

• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Story: The Saints leans on the passing game en route to a Week 1 win.

A season ago, the Titans were attacked via the passing game at a higher rate than any other team in the NFL, as their run defense was far stronger than their pass defense.

On average, teams averaged 0.3 expected points added (EPA) more passing against the Titans than running against them, by far the biggest gap in the NFL last year.

The personnel on defense remains mostly the same in Tennessee: They have a stout defensive front, but no cornerback was even above average in preventing separation last season.

• It's not just that the matchup should push the Saints toward the passing game, but New Orleans also boasts several wide receivers whose separation abilities — as you can see above, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were all terrific last season — can mitigate the strength of the Titans' pass rush.

• This should give Saints quarterback Derek Carr plenty of opportunities to make accurate throws and let his receivers win after the catch, which is also a facet of play in which his receivers have excelled.

• If Carr wins through the air via a pass-heavy approach, this would likely mean Jamaal Williams and the run game don’t get much work, even in a game script in which the Saints lead.

FanDuel single-game parlay: +2452

Bonus bet: If you are more bullish on the Saints' ability to win — or if you're confident betting against the Titans — Carr 325+ passing yards, Williams under 60.5 rushing yards and New Orleans Saints -5.5 would be +4625.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Story: The 49ers lean on Brandon Aiyuk and enjoy a big day in the passing game.

The Steelers played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league last season, but that could be an issue against the 49ers offense.

As we studied last summer — and as has become a common theme in this SGP space — man-coverage targets are more predictable and reflect the talent on the field.

Brandon Aiyuk is set to face off against Levi Wallace, who ranked third-worst among qualifying cornerbacks in preventing separation in man coverage last year. Meanwhile, Aiyuk has perennially been at the top of the league in separation against man coverage.

 Looking at the 49ers' distribution of targets against man coverage, it is Aiyuk who has earned the highest target share and produced at the best clip.

 If the Niners are going to attack through the air, it will likely flow through Aiyuk. Look for him to be targeted early and often, leading the Niners to a big passing day.

PointsBet single-game parlay: +10000

​​Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Story: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb carve up the New York Giants‘ blitz for the Week 1 victory.

 Wink Martindale's defenses have always been extremely blitz- and man-heavy. Last year, his Giants defense led the NFL in blitz rate at nearly 50%.

 Dak Prescott should be well-equipped to handle the test, though, as he has been one of the league's most dominant quarterbacks against the blitz since entering the NFL, ranking top-five at the position in both PFF grade and EPA per pass against the blitz.

Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb will be going up against two rookie cornerbacks and an aging Adoree' Jackson, so he should be set to feast on Sunday Night Football.

 Last season, Lamb produced a 30% target rate vs. man and finished fifth in the NFL in yards per route run vs. man. He should see the ball often in this one.

 The Cowboys apparently want to run the ball more this season, and that is perhaps driving down the pricing on the passing offense. But their stated preference only means so much when their offseason moves indicate a team that wants to pass — after all, the team added Brandin Cooks and let Ezekiel Elliott walk without signing or drafting a true replacement.

PointsBet single-game parlay: +2200
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