NFL Week 1: Same-game parlays to target

• Buccaneers TE Cade Otton draws a favorable coverage matchup: Cincinnati allowed a league-high 9.7 targets and 86.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends last season.

• Raiders QB Kirk Cousins can attack Miami through the air: The Dolphins struggled to create perfect coverage and disruption last season, creating a potential passing-volume opportunity for Las Vegas.

• Introducing the NEW PFF Pro subscription: PFF Pro includes everything in PFF+, plus an upgraded Premium Stats Pro experience, higher base access to Guru AI, revamped player and team pages, enhanced data and visualizations, an improved interface and programmatic data access for modeling. Click here to subscribe.

Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for the divisional round, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to lean on TE Cade Otton in a win against the Bengals

There is a tail here with Baker Mayfield and the passing attack, given where the market is pricing Mayfield, which is closer to Week 19 of 2025 than, in my view, Week 1 of 2026. The main difference for Baker is his arm health, which he injured in Week 7 against Detroit a season ago.

A full season’s worth of data would suggest that Mayfield struggled to take advantage of coverage mistakes and undisturbed plays in 2025, a stark contrast to his performance in 2023 and 2024. But I think much of that data is marred by his injury. Before getting hurt — and then playing through the injury — Baker ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt against coverage mistakes and eighth in EPA on undisturbed plays.

That is especially relevant against a Bengals defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in both areas in 2025. There are tails and SGPs worth attacking based on that matchup alone, but perhaps my favorite angle is looking at where Cincinnati’s coverage breaks down and which Buccaneers player is best positioned to take advantage.

Most of the Bengals’ coverage mistakes came from their linebacker group, which allowed a league-high 9.7 targets and 86.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends, as well as 1.23 explosive receptions per game.

And the Bengals’ linebacker room remains a sea of red for Otton to take advantage of. Add in the news that receivers Jalen McMillan and Emeka Egbuka are dealing with injuries, and this sets up a spot where Otton could excel.

SGP Build

• TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6+ receptions
• TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 70+ receiving yards
• TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anytime TD
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Moneyline

Las Vegas Raiders rely on Kirk Cousins‘ arm in a win against a struggling Miami Dolphins Secondary

The Dolphins’ defense was one of the NFL’s biggest pass funnels last season, performing significantly worse against the pass than against the run.

This defense struggled to create perfect coverage and generate disruption with pressure last season. And that was before losing three starting cornerbacks and Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety. I expect this to be one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, with little pass rush to cover for it.

Cousins might not be able to move much, but he still graded out as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks on plays without perfect coverage, ranking 10th at the position in PFF grade on such plays while averaging a robust 9.0 yards per attempt.

This is also a spot where I think the play volume can stack up for the Raiders. Malik Willis has one of the highest sack rates among active quarterbacks, which can lead to short drives and more opportunities for Las Vegas. Between the pass-funnel nature of Miami’s defense, the state of its secondary and the potential for elevated play volume, this is a spot with both volume and opportunity for Cousins.

SGP Build

• QB Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 32+ pass attempts
• QB Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 260+ passing yards
• Las Vegas Raiders: -3

C.J. Stroud has a point to prove against the Buffalo Bills defense

Building off our pick in the matchups to target article, this is a spot where I think the Texans are primed to throw the ball effectively and take advantage of Buffalo’s secondary.

Dee Alford in the slot is a particularly vulnerable matchup. He struggled immensely to prevent separation last season, especially downfield, where he ranked among the worst cornerbacks in the NFL.

That makes Jaylin Noel an intriguing option. He operated out of the slot nearly 70% of the time and was one of the league's most explosive wide receivers.

Outside of Nico Collins, who is obviously a threat but is priced accordingly, Noel stands out as the player most likely to benefit if Stroud goes well over his passing-yard total and punishes Buffalo downfield. His prices are still in the cellar for a player who should see plenty of opportunities as Houston’s primary slot receiver.

SGP Build

• QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 280+ passing yards
• WR Jaylin Noel, Houston Texans: 60+ receiving yards
• Houston Texans: Moneyline