We can identify potential edges in the NFL Week 5 prop bet market by analyzing the underlying utilization data and trends that drive NFL box scores.
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RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (105)
Dillon has 4, 5, 6 and 16 attempts in the first four games of this season. However, six of his 10 carries last week came in the four-minute offense, and 33% of totes this season have come with the Packers ahead by 10 or more. Remove those carries, and Dillon is averaging five attempts per game.
The Packers are three-point favorites this weekend at Cincinnati. If this game is as close as the line indicates, Dillon isn't a good bet to accumulate seven rushing attempts.
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Taking the under on Dillon's 6.5 attempts represents a 12.7% value in the Player Props Tool.
Note: Aaron Jones is questionable but has two limited practices through Thursday. Jones followed the same routine last week and was active. He handled 64% of attempts before giving way in the four-minute offense.
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