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NFL player props Week 5: Leveraging utilization data to identify edges

Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon (28) runs the ball against Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter at Lambeau Field, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis. Samantha Madar/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Gpg Packersvsteelers 100321 0006

We can identify potential edges in the NFL Week 5 prop bet market by analyzing the underlying utilization data and trends that drive NFL box scores.

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RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (105)

Dillon has 4, 5, 6 and 16 attempts in the first four games of this season. However, six of his 10 carries last week came in the four-minute offense, and 33% of totes this season have come with the Packers ahead by 10 or more. Remove those carries, and Dillon is averaging five attempts per game.

The Packers are three-point favorites this weekend at Cincinnati. If this game is as close as the line indicates, Dillon isn't a good bet to accumulate seven rushing attempts.

Related content for you: Best NFL Week 5 player prop bets via Nathan Jahnke

Taking the under on Dillon's 6.5 attempts represents a 12.7% value in the Player Props Tool.

Note: Aaron Jones is questionable but has two limited practices through Thursday. Jones followed the same routine last week and was active. He handled 64% of attempts before giving way in the four-minute offense.

PFF's Player Props Tool leverages PFF's Fantasy Football Projections to reveal betting opportunities within player prop markets.

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