Jahnke: Best NFL Week 5 player prop bets | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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Jahnke: Best NFL Week 5 player prop bets

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs with the ball after a catch against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 5 is here, which means it's time to take advantage of some great prop bets.

Last week, these picks went 2-1, bringing them to 4-2 on the season. I missed on Cooper Kupp‘s 6.5-reception prop last week, as he finished with five catches on 13 targets, which comes on the heels of Travis Kelce finishing one reception away from hitting his reception prop in Week 3. Kupp and Kelce both had a season-high in targets but a season-low in catch rate.


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Leverage PFF's player props tool, which goes through all of the possible props, to find the most valuable potential bets. I sifted through each to find the three NFL player prop bets I liked the most, so let's dive in.

Related content for you: NFL Week 5 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri

 

RB Michael Carter, New York Jets, over 11.5 carries, -105

The fourth-round rookie has taken over the primary rushing role in the Jets backfield. He ran the ball 13 times last week in the Jets' first victory of the season. New York would like to be a run-heavy team, but the game scripts thus far haven’t allowed it, as the Jets have played eight offensive snaps with a lead so far this season. When the game is tied, the Jets run 42% of the time, which is the ninth-highest rate. They are also among the top-12 teams in run-rate even when they are losing— they’ve just spent most of the season behind on the scoreboard.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Carter % of RB Carries 23.5% 39.3% 75.0% 65.0%

This week, the Jets face an Atlanta Falcons team in a game that is expected to be their closest game of the season so far. A close game would allow them to run more than in previous contests this season.

The combination of Carter’s recent increased role as well as the opponent should give Carter at least 12 carries.

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