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Favorite NFL futures bets ahead of the NFC and AFC Championship

Nov 29, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians speaks with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the injury to the league’s most valuable player (long-term, at least), our futures gained substantial value last week, with our only exposure now being the Buffalo Bills as they head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs.

At this point, betting futures doesn't offer the value it did at the beginning of the season. Hopefully, you have some +EV bets remaining. However, much like we wrote about going into week 17, there are some bets you can make that will hedge futures in many cases. Generally speaking, you should only hedge a bet if the second bet is +EV. That said, there might be reasonable instances where you’re trying to trade positive expected value for variance.

Thus, given our current exposure (see below), we talk about possible bets to make this week and how it impacts your expected return. If you want our simulation’s predictions for the playoffs, please read Tuesday's article: 2020 NFL Playoffs: A statistical view of the four remaining teams. Enjoy!

[Editor's note: Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use promo code PFF when you sign up to turn $1 into $100 if any QB scores a rushing or receiving touchdown this weekend! Click here to play at DraftKings Sportsbook.]

Resolved Regular-Season Futures Bets

10-9 record, +5.64 units 

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