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NFL Betting 2022: Week 16 spread picks to bet before lines move

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

• Bet Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ New England Patriots: The Bengals have been one of the best — and healthiest — teams in the NFL recently. Since Week 9, they’ve been the best offense overall by expected points added (EPA) per play and a top-four passing attack by EPA per dropback.

• Bet Miami Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers: The Dolphins covered in Buffalo in Week 15 and put on a dynamic offensive performance, which should quell any concern of them having been figured out.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins

Editor's Note: Betting lines are accurate as of post-Sunday Night Football.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ New England Patriots

Why to bet:

The Bengals have been one of the best — and healthiest — teams in the NFL recently. Since Week 9, they’ve been the best offense overall by expected points added (EPA) per play and a top-four passing attack by EPA per dropback.

The Patriots simply do not possess the top-end talent at cornerback to guard Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. While Bill Belichick can scheme against some of the best teams in the league, talent wins out on occasion, which is seen in performances by top wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs.

On the other side, the Patriots' offense is not good. They are a below-average rushing attack and one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Against the Raiders' bottom-tier secondary in Week 15, Mac Jones averaged -0.16 EPA per play. The Bengals' defense started slowly against the Bucs but completely turned it around via numerous turnovers. They’ve shown the capability to slow down opposing offenses by forcing turnovers or punts all season, and there’s little reason to think that will stop when they play Jones and the Patriots.

Why to be wary:

Bill Belichick versus Zac Taylor. While Taylor’s ability to redesign the offense during the season has been highlighted and praised, he was on Sean McVay’s staff in the 2018 Super Bowl when the Rams scored three points. Now, Joe Burrow is much better than then-Rams quarterback Jared Goff, and Taylor has grown a lot as a coach, but after a heartbreaking loss in Vegas, this could be a huge Belichick revenge game.


Miami Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

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