Monday Night Football Same-Game Parlay: Bills vs Vikings Best Bets

• Justin Jefferson draws a favorable matchup: Buffalo ranks 30th in passing yards allowed per game, while Jefferson has exceeded 70 receiving yards in six of seven career games with Carson Wentz at quarterback.

• Khalil Shakir offers a potential answer to Minnesota's blitz: Shakir has drawn 51 targets against the blitz over the past two seasons, making his three-plus receptions prop a focus of the parlay.

• Buffalo's offense faces a distinctive defensive challenge: The Bills rank fourth in EPA per play against the blitz since the start of 2025, while Minnesota blitzes at an 81% rate.

Monday Night Football brings a battle between two 6-1 teams with drastically different styles of play.

The Minnesota Vikings rely heavily on their best-in-class defense and have succeeded despite poor play from the offense. The Buffalo Bills have arguably the league's most explosive offense, paired with one of its worst defenses.

We have hit three of our last five same-game parlays, so let's keep the train going tonight with a +550 play for tonight's game.

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Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+135) and 70+ receiving yards (-160)

Jefferson draws a great matchup, per the PFF Matchup Chart, against a bottom-tier Bills defense that ranks 24th in passing touchdowns allowed and 30th in passing yards allowed per game. He has surpassed 70 receiving yards in six of his seven career games with Carson Wentz under center, making this a great bounce-back opportunity for one of the best receivers in the game.

Khalil Shakir 3+ receptions (-384)

Minnesota’s absurd blitz rate is one of the most well-known tendencies in the NFL at this point. Over the past two seasons, Khalil Shakir has been Josh Allen‘s No. 1 target against the blitz, drawing 51 targets when opponents send an extra rusher.

During that span, Shakir has also been the Bills‘ highest-graded offensive player in those situations. Shakir will be a key part of the Bills‘ counterattack against the Vikings‘ incredible 81% blitz rate.

Buffalo Bills moneyline (-198)

They say defense wins championships, but it won’t win you a game on Monday night. The Bills should handle Brian Flores’ blitz packages, having ranked fourth in EPA per play against the blitz since the start of the 2025 season. The Bills also run the football at the fourth-highest rate in the league, one area where the Vikings’ defense has struggled. Minnesota ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed and 29th in explosive run rate allowed.