Data-driven player prop picks for Week 15: Alvin Kamara, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs for a first down against the Green Bay Packers in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

• Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing touchdowns: Jalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles currently rank third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Chicago Bears have the worst pass defense in the NFL and have been historically bad since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.

Alvin Kamara under 58.5 rushing yards: Alvin Kamara ranks 31st among 37 qualifying running backs in rushing yards over expected this season. He also has the lowest rate of explosive rushes in the league.

Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards: The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the second-most scramble yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. Josh Allen has 450 rushing yards on scrambles in 2022, second-most in the league.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

After having success giving out three player prop picks for quarterbacks and three player prop picks for running backs in separate articles, we are combining the best of those props into a single article from here on out.

The running back props finished up 7.2 units, and the quarterback props finished up 5.2 units. We hope to continue that success going forward.

BET: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130 DraftKings; playable to -140)

Eagles have a big passing advantage: Jalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles currently rank third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Chicago Bears have the worst pass defense in the NFL and have been historically bad since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.

Hurts has done it frequently: Hurts has thrown for at least two touchdowns in 11 of his 13 games this season, or 84% of the time. These odds imply it should happen 56.5% of the time.

BET: Alvin Kamara Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 56.5)

Karama hasn’t been effective: Alvin Kamara ranks 31st among 37 qualifying running backs in rushing yards over expected this season. He also has the lowest rate of explosive rushes in the league.

Kamara goes under often: The Saints running back rushed for over 50 yards in the last five weeks, let alone over this prop of 58.5 rushing yards.

BET: Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings; playable to 48.5)

The Dolphins surrender rushing yards to quarterbacks: The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the second-most scramble yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. Josh Allen has 450 rushing yards on scrambles in 2022, second-most in the league.

Allen has gone over against similar teams: Allen rushed for 78 yards against the Detroit Lions and 84 yards against the Minnesota Vikings. The Dolphins defense is just as bad at giving up rushes to quarterbacks, setting up Allen to do it again.

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