Up to this point in the 2021 college football season, we can say that the betting market has overshot in terms of totals. In FBS versus FBS matchups in Week 1, unders went 35-15 (70%) and games had an average point total of 52.1 compared to an average over/under of 57.5.
That isn’t a recommendation to blindly bet unders in Week 2, but it will be something to monitor going forward. After overs dominated in 2020, the reverse has happened to start the 2021 season.
I didn’t show too many big edges on totals this week, but there are a few I bet early and still see value on. It looks like the market has adjusted to last week’s results in terms of totals, so it will be interesting to see if we see a swing toward more overs in Week 2.
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Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes — OVER 63
Projection: 66.7
Ohio State’s passing game got off to a slow start last week, but it didn’t take long for the unit to start hitting explosive plays and pull away from Minnesota. The offense totaled 240 yards on its five explosive passes.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud missed some throws out of the gate in his first game as a starter but had a solid performance overall. He made three big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy plays and tallied a nation-leading 13.4 yards per attempt mark last week among quarterbacks who played FBS teams.
Receiver Chris Olave continued to establish his case for best receiver in the country, totaling 117 yards on just four catches, with 84 coming after the catch, and adding two touchdowns.
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