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Sharpe's Take: Best NFL bets to make ahead of Super Bowl 55

Dec 26, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) talks to head coach Bruce Arians before a game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

It’s finally here, the final game of the season — Super Bowl 55!

For the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will go head to head — this time with a Lombardi Trophy on the line. And what better way to get into the spirit than to give my take on betting the Super Bowl itself, talk about my player prop strategy and give out a few prop picks that I like.

Good luck with your bets, and enjoy the game!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 56)

Team EPA/Play EPA/Play Allowed QB PFF Grade PFF Power Rating
KC +0.18 (3rd) +0.07 (19th) 91.4 (4/48) +13.0 (1st)
TB +0.15 (5th) -0.04 (4th) 92.6 (2/48) +7.7 (T-3rd)

PFF power ratings have Patrick Mahomes & Co. as 5.3-point favorites. Despite playing in mostly one-score games over the second half of the regular season, the Chiefs appeared to “take it down” somewhat in those games before “switching it on” in the playoffs. I was a bit more skeptical of this theory initially, but it seems to have been born out. And FiveThirtyEight's Josh Hermsmeyer recently showed how Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is more aggressive about going for it on fourth down in the playoffs.

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