Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp moving closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach.
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If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at the most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.
We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.
Mispriced scenarios should have even worse mispricing further downstream as errors compound. If the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.
Our belief in the Green Bay Packers, sans Aaron Rodgers, was the biggest misstep so far in 2021. Green Bay was completely out of sync but did end up covering the full game spread. Unfortunately, our focus on the first-half spread was the wrong choice in that particular matchup. We did get almost all the way there with the Las Vegas Raiders, as they covered the first-half spread and pushed the total, bringing our written picks to a -.1 unit week after a payout based solely on the Raiders covering. Overall, this article's plays move to 8-12 on the season, but the plus price targets are paying off from a units won perspective, as we are up +3.75 units this season.
Using the approaches above, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 10.
Related content for you: NFL Week 10 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
The Tennessee Titans are running away with not only the AFC South but also the No. 1 overall seed after three victories over teams that are in the top six of PFF’s ELO rankings. The Titans now have the easiest strength of schedule remaining and can coast to the first-round bye on autopilot after their matchup against the New Orleans Saints this weekend.
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