After a successful stint on PrizePricks throughout the 2021 regular season, I'll continue to cover my favorite weekly player props bets from the conference championships until the Super Bowl, and there will be a particular emphasis on hitting inefficient lines early in the week.
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My divisional-round picks went 11-8, thanks largely to the early jump I was able to get on inefficient receiving lines. The early-week market is where we can find an edge, and it’s our job as bettors to hammer the bad lines for as much plus expected value as possible.
For those making the leap from fantasy football to player props, PrizePicks is DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go over or under their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each additional leg, similar to a parlay bet.
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- JA’MARR CHASE OVER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- JOE BURROW OVER 262.5 PASSING YARDS
- AARON JONES UNDER 48.5 RUSHING YARDS
- ANTHONY FIRKSER UNDER 25.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- GEOFF SWAIM UNDER 2.0 RECEPTIONS, UNDER 12.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- CAMERON BRATE UNDER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- JOSH ALLEN OVER 295.5 TOTAL YARDS, OVER 45.5 RUSHING YARDS
- GABRIEL DAVIS OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 20.5 RUSHING YARDS
- ELIJAH MITCHELL OVER 71.5 RUSHING YARDS
- JULIO JONES UNDER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- COLE BEASLEY UNDER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- JIMMY GAROPPOLO OVER 1.5 RUSHING YARDS
- TOM BRADY OVER 1.5 RUSHING YARDS
- KYLE JUSZCZYK OVER 1.5 RECEPTIONS
- BYRON PRINGLE OVER 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS
- ALLEN LAZARD OVER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Best 2022 AFC & NFC Championship NFL Player Props Bets
QB PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: OVER 26.5 RUSHING YARDS
When Patrick Mahomes plays in the postseason he turns on his legs. In his last 8 playoff games prior to last week he has averaged 36 rushing yards per game. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback proceeded to smash this line into oblivion versus the Buffalo Bills with 69 rushing yards on seven scrambles.
Pound the over on his comically low rushing yards prop that he has surpassed in four of his last six contests.
WR VAN JEFFERSON, LOS ANGELES RAMS: UNDER 2.5 RECEPTIONS
Van Jefferson’s usage has been dwindling in recent weeks. So much so that his target share has fallen to 10% in the team’s last four games. After looking like a potential stable body in the Rams offense, Jefferson has transformed back into a boom-or-bust WR3.
And that archetype wide receiver is the exact one you want to target for player props. Jefferson has gone over 2.5 catches once in his last seven games.
QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: UNDER 232.5 PASSING YARDS
It sure has not looked pretty for Jimmy Garoppolo during the postseason, as the 49ers quarterback has played through multiple injuries. His 60.7 PFF passing grade, 152 passing yards per game and 6.9 yards per attempt all rank last among the remaining quarterbacks.
San Francisco runs the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps, making them the most run-heavy team of championship weekend. They ran the ball 57% of the time across their two previous matchups against the Los Angeles Rams this year.
With operation ground and pound in full effect for Sunday’s NFC championship, go under on Jimmy G’s passing yards prop on Underdog Fantasy — it will only be bet down during the week.
I’d suggest parlaying Jimmy G’s prop with unders on 49ers receivers, such as Brandon Aiyuk (51.5). It's also worth parlaying with an under on Matthew Stafford passing yards (280.5), as the Rams quarterback failed to pass for more than 250 yards in both games against San Francisco this season.