Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and chasing target volume has always been a winning strategy — especially in PPR leagues. PFF premium stats offers proprietary data that goes well beyond the box score, including routes run for every player from different alignments.
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Targeting players who are running a high percentage of routes is a good strategy for identifying breakout candidates and waiver wire additions. This weekly report will look at the previous week's rate of routes run per dropback compared to larger samples to find running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or less opportunities in the passing game.
Last week's article highlighted the likes of Kyle Pitts, Robert Woods, Ricky Seals-Jones and D’Andre Swift as players whose usage was likely to transform into fantasy production sooner than later.
Published Monday, Oct. 11. This data does not include the Monday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.
Rate of routes run per dropback | Weeks 1-5
|Player||% of routes run per dropback|
|Michael Pittman Jr.||97%|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||92%|
DeAndre Hopkins’ slow start to the season is hard to grasp — he’s been running routes at the highest rate among all wide receivers. But the Cardinals have added competition in the passing game, with A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk all in the mix for targets.
Over the past four weeks, Hopkins owns just a 19% target share, which ranks outside the top 30 wide receivers. The five-game sample size is big enough to suggest Hopkins' days being a locked-and-loaded weekly top-five option are no longer realistic. I’d be looking to sell high after Nuk’s 28% target share led to a top-15 weekly finish in Week 5.
#Cardinals target share last four weeks
DeAndre Hopkins – 19%
A.J. Green – 16%
Chase Edmonds – 16%
Rondale Moore – 14%
Christian Kirk – 13%
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 11, 2021
Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 5