Week 4 generally went well, with PFF Greenline up about 6.5 units against closing lines through Sunday Night Football and our pick of the week (BAL -13) getting us to 4-0 on the season on those. Written picks got some line value, but with Green Bay pending on Monday Night Football, we have gone 1-2 this week so far despite getting closing line value on each one.
We move on to Week 5, where we think there’s some value to be had again early in the slate:
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Point (Eric Eager): This number is likely only going to get bigger as the week goes on after the initial shock of the Giants covering against a dull Rams team and the Cowboys losing outright as favorites to a good Browns team that people had previously underrated. Dak Prescott isn’t a perfect quarterback — he has produced three turnover-worthy plays in each of the past two weeks — but Daniel Jones and the Giants are not good enough to make him pay for mistakes that were too costly against other, more competent teams.