The Atlanta Falcons were the Atlanta Falcons again in Week 3, but this time as a three-point favorite — dragging their ATS record to 1-2, which was our record for picks for this column, as well. The Tennessee Titans won for the third consecutive week but didn’t cover for the third time in as many tries. We did get our pick of the week on the PFF Forecast correct, pushing our record on those plays to 3-0, thanks to an ugly outright win by the Detroit Lions (+6).
We’ve found some nice numbers for Week 4 — although most of them are favorites in a week with a lot of games between teams that are equally… marginal. We’re fading two teams that are at their absolute lows, only because we don’t see much in the way of an opportunity for them to improve, at least this week. Enjoy!
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Point (George Chahrouri): The 49ers have suffered worse injury luck than any other team in the NFL by a large margin. The team they trotted out Sunday was without just about all of their star players, save Fred Warner and Ross Dwelley. Despite trotting out Nick Mullens at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan put on an absolute display — the 49ers averaged 8.2 yards per pass play, third-best in Week 3. Through three weeks, the 49ers rank second in expected points added per early-down pass play.