• Best Bet: Bears QB Justin Fields to surpass 3,299.5 passing yards, -115 on BetMGM
• Best Bet: Packers WR Romeo Doubs to win OROY, +1800 on BetMGM
• Subscribing to PFF premium stats is the best way to gain a betting edge
Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premier betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right.
In this article I go through one bet I like for each NFC North team. Enjoy!
Green Bay Packers (-155 to win the division, season win total of 11)
Bet to Make: ROMEO DOUBS +1800 to win offensive rookie of the year on BetMGM
We moved the market on Rashan Gary, who was anywhere from 60/1 to 75/1 to win defensive player of the year in 2022. He is now 22/1 to win the award at BetMGM, which is not a number worth betting at this point. Congrats, syndicate members.
Doubs is the clear choice here, and although you’re not getting the best number, he’s certainly earned the hype. If he emerges as the Packers' No. 1 wide receiver, look out.
— Eric Eager ???????? (@PFF_Eric) August 13, 2022
Minnesota Vikings (+250, season win total of 9)
Bet to Make: DALVIN COOK under 1174.5 rushing yards (-115) on BetMGM
We moved the market on Kevin O’Connell to win coach of the year, as that has been bet down to +1400. Congrats, syndicate members.
So, what’s left? I talked about the Cook bet here, and after this weekend’s game in Vegas, I like it even more. The Vikings’ offensive line is likely to be improved, but that doesn’t mean Cook — whose yards per carry fell from 5.0 in 2020 to 4.7 in 2021 — will improve with it. Add in the fact that O’Connell was part of a Rams organization that, after running the wheels off of Todd Gurley in the past, were also part of a revolution in player health and safety in recent years, and you might see more Alexander Mattison, Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler than expected.
Detroit Lions (+850, season win total of 6.5 )
Bet to Make: D’ANDRE SWIFT +4000 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns on BetMGM
A few reasons I like this bet: Firstly, the Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2022, which is why we’re a bull on them. Secondly, the offensive line for Detroit — which boasts three first-round picks at the unit’s most important positions — should be very good. Thirdly, people think that Swift isn’t very good. This may very well be true, but we know that much of what happens at the running back position is independent of how good the runner is, which presents a value. Back Swift here as a longshot.
Chicago Bears (+1100, season win total of 6.5)
Bet to Make: JUSTIN FIELDS over 3299.5 passing yards (-115) on BetMGM
Not many positive things are going to happen for the Bears this year. They very well could be the worst team in the league. However, this number is extremely low for Fields, who basically needs to stay healthy and average roughly 200 yards a game in the air. This isn’t 1993, and although I played college football with better tackles than what the Bears have, Fields' mobility should be enough to buy him time when they are behind to get over this number.