Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 6 late-Sunday Best Bets: Player props, spread bets and more

Bet Christian McCaffrey u60.5 rush yards at Rams: McCaffrey has been held under 60 rushing yards in each of his past two games; Carolina passes the ball 71.2% of the time when losing, and face the Rams as 10-point underdogs.

Bet Marquise Brown o69.5 receiving yards at Seahawks: He has the team's highest average depth of target, and that is perfect for a matchup against the Seahawks, who allow the second-highest percentage of passing plays to go for 15+ yards.

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Last updated: Sun. Oct. 16, 2:30 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets in the late-afternoon Sunday window in Week 6:

Martyn Carlisle: Arizona Cardinals WR Marquise Brown — Over 69.5 receiving yards at Seattle Seahawks (-110 FD)

• Only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson have more targets than Marquise Brown through five weeks, but this is likely the last opportunity we have to take advantage with suspended WR1 DeAndre Hopkins returning in Week 7. Not only is Brown the possession receiver, but he has the team's highest average depth of target, and that is perfect for a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who allow the second-highest percentage of passing plays to go for 15+ yards.

Timo Riske: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes is getting points. At home. For the first time ever and probably for the last time in a long time. The Bills are the best team in football right now, but this is the chance I wouldn’t want to let pass away. The Chiefs rarely get blown out, so it’s very likely that this game comes down to who possesses the football last, just like in their memorable shootout in last season’s divisional round. The chances that this would be Mahomes are roughly 50:50 and even if the Bills have the laugh last, the result might only be by a field goal or less, allowing the Chiefs to cover the spread of three points.

Nathan Jahnke: Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey — Under 60.5 rush yards (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams

• McCaffrey has been held under 60 rushing yards in each of his past two games, as his carries have decreased while his targets increase. Carolina passes the ball 71.2% of the time when losing, and face the Rams as 10-point underdogs.

• Most running backs who have faced Los Angeles have been held under 4.0 yards per carry. McCaffrey's most successful with man/gap-scheme run concepts, which has been his most frequent run concept this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry on such plays. Meantime, the Rams have successfully stifled man/gap-scheme run concepts this season, limiting opposing backs to just 2.7 yards per carry.

Tommy Jurgens: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

• This line stinks, and the Seahawks offense is legit good. The unit currently ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and should have no issue exploiting a generous Arizona defense. Don’t be afraid of monsters under the bed, back Seattle and QB Geno Smith.• For those inclined to back Arizona— the Cardinals have yet to score in the first quarter this season, and it is very likely that one may find a better line mid-game.


PFF staff best bets are 46-35 entering Week 6.

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