- The Cleveland Browns rely on their young players: Quinshon Judkins and KC Concepcion Jr. both received increased playing time compared to past weeks, while Denzel Boston led the team in receiving, thanks to a 60-yard reception.
- Germie Bernard cuts into Michael Pittman Jr.’s playing time: The second-round rookie was playing more in 11 personnel than the veteran.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Browns rely more heavily on Quinshon Judkins: The second-year running back reached new highs in terms of snap rate.
Judkins averaged only 50.1% of snaps as a rookie as the Browns' primary running back on early downs, but Dylan Sampson rotated in significantly as his backup, while Jerome Ford was the passing-down back. Cleveland didn’t re-sign Ford, and Sampson suffered an injury that landed him on injured reserve early in Week 1. This left Raheim Sanders as the Browns backup. Despite this, Judkins only played 60.3% over the first three weeks.
Judkins has played 72.5% of early-down snaps, which ranked 10th among running backs over the first three weeks. However, Judkins was taken out on third downs and in some short-yardage and goal-line situations.
This week, while he wasn’t on the field for clear passing situations, Judkins played a higher percentage of early-down, short-yardage and goal-line snaps.
While he still hasn’t been all that effective as a runner, Judkins scored a goal-line touchdown for Cleveland and was involved in the passing game. He caught a career-high six passes in this game after tying his career high with five two weeks ago. Despite his inefficiencies, if the Browns' offense is playing well enough for Judkins to score touchdowns and he keeps being a priority in the passing game, it will be easier to put him in fantasy starting lineups going forward.
Jerry Jeudy’s role continues to decline: The veteran wide receiver was in a rotation for the third wide receiver spot.
Jeudy was the Browns' top wide receiver last season, but the additions of Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion Jr. put Jeudy’s spot on the depth chart in jeopardy. In the first two weeks, Boston was the X receiver in all personnel groupings. Jeudy and Concepcion split time in 12 personnel, while Jeudy was the Z and Concepcion the slot in 11 personnel. Jeudy wasn’t even a full-time player in 11 personnel, with Tylan Wallace taking one-third of the 11 personnel snaps, mostly from Jeudy.
Last week, Jeudy’s playing time dropped further, with Concepcion playing more in 12 personnel. This left Jeudy with only two of 12 snaps in 12 personnel. If anything, it seemed like Jeudy could see more playing time this week. Wallace was inactive with a knee injury, so Jeudy was thought to play more than usual in 11 personnel. Instead, Malachi Corley was more involved. Concepcion’s playing time increased this week, so when Isaiah Bond was on the field, it was also in place of Jeudy. During the first three weeks, when Bond was on the field, it was typically in for Concepcion.
This game was good news for Concepcion’s fantasy value, as his snap share is now at its ceiling. Jeudy has no fantasy value in this role, and his best path to value now is either an injury to Boston or Concepcion, or a trade.
Jaylen Warren shines for a second straight week: The Steelers running back has made the case to be Pittsburgh’s lead back going forward.
Warren has spent his career being part of a two-man rotation, first with Najee Harris, then Kenneth Gainwell, then Rico Dowdle. For the first four years of his career, his competition for playing time stayed healthy. He played 54.7% of snaps over the first two weeks of this season while in a rotation. Dowdle missed last week with a toe injury, giving us our first look at what Warren’s playing time could look like without strong competition.
He dominated playing time in all situations last week, and he did so again this week. There have been three instances of a running back playing over 90% of snaps in a game this season, and Warren has two of them.
In both games, he showed he could be effective on high snap totals. While there is optimism Dowdle will be back next week, Warren has been clearly ahead of Dowdle in every statistical measure over the first four weeks of the season. We should expect Warren to be the lead back going forward, but it could be a 55-45 split, an 80-20 split, or anywhere in between. The split will determine whether Warren is a starter in a given matchup or a must-start option.
Steelers adjust their wide receiver rotation: Pittsburgh has used its wide receivers differently each week.
In Week 1, Pittsburgh’s wide receiver rotation was straightforward, with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. playing in 11 and 12 personnel and Roman Wilson joining in 11. Pittman missed Week 2 with a foot injury, leading Wilson to take his spot in 12 personnel, and second-round rookie Germie Bernard taking over in 11. In Week 3, Pittman was back, but only played 72.6% of snaps. Wilson was back in his usual role in the first half, but a drop that turned into an interception led Pittsburgh to turn to Bernard in 11 personnel in the second half. Ben Skowronek was also involved.
This week, Pittman wasn’t on the injury report, but his role was reduced again. Specifically, in 11 personnel, he was rotated out much more than in other weeks. Unlike the second half of last week, Wilson was back to being a primary player in 11 personnel, but he was also rotated out a little more than usual. In general, it was Bernard taking snaps from Pittman at Z and Skowronek assuming snaps from Wilson in the slot. The Steelers also used more 12 personnel than usual. Pittman’s drop in playing time would be even more apparent if the Steelers stuck with their usual mix of 11 and 12 personnel.
It’s possible Pittman still isn’t 100%, and the Steelers were also being conservative on a short week. It’s also possible that the Steelers have started to like Bernard and Wilson just as much as Pittman as a receiver. Pittman has consistently played in 12 personnel over the last two weeks, so they still prefer Pittman’s blocking the best of the three.
It makes sense to hold onto Pittman one more week to see what his usage looks like after extended rest. If the Steelers rotate their wide receivers this much in 11 personnel in Week 5, then it’s fine to drop him after that.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Steelers seventh-round rookie running back Eli Heidenreich was a healthy inactive for a second straight week. Travis Homer has been the Steelers' backup running back with Rico Dowdle out, while Lew Nichols was a practice squad call-up to be the third running back like last week.
- Roman Wilson missed part of the fourth quarter due to injury, but he was able to return for the final 10 seconds of the game.
Table Notes
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, such as offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats exclude these plays.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clearly thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
- Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count toward the total number of carries in the game.
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