• WR Jordan Addison longest reception over 21.5 yards: Addison has gone over this number in both games to start the season, and he also has an average depth of target of 16.5 yards, the fourth-highest mark at the position.
• WR Adam Thielen over 3.5 receptions: Thielen is the main guy in this offense. Per Nathan Jahnke, the veteran wideout ran the second-most routes of any Panthers WR last week and has received the most targets of anyone on the offense.
• RB Zack Moss under 53.5 rushing yards: The Ravens run defense has been stout thus far, ranking sixth in rushing success rate allowed and ninth in EPA allowed per rush. Their defense is a bit banged up, but defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald has done a great job of adjusting his defense for the injuries suffered and has made it tough for opposing offenses to move the ball.
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
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WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: Longest reception over 21.5 yards (-119)
• The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense is the worst in the NFL through two weeks, and there’s no real sign that it will get better anytime soon. The group ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass, 27th in passing success rate allowed, and they have allowed the most explosive plays of any defense in the league.
• Chargers head coach Brandon Staley also announced this week that the team will be rotating their outside CBs in hopes of finding a stable rotation. That should work in Addison’s favor, as it will be tough for the CBs to find a rhythm rotating in and out.
• Addison has gone over this number in both games to start the season, and he also has an average depth of target of 16.5 yards, the fourth-highest mark at the position.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers: Over 3.5 receptions (+120)
• The Panthers' passing game has been pretty bad in its first two weeks with Bryce Young at the helm. However, things might improve with Andy Dalton starting, as Dalton may be a better option than Young at this point in his career.
• Thielen is the main guy in this offense. Per Nathan Jahnke, the veteran wideout ran the second-most routes of any Panthers WR last week and has received the most targets of anyone on the offense. While his speed and acceleration may have declined compared to his early years in Minnesota, he can still be a reliable safety blanket for whoever’s playing QB for the Panthers.
• The Seahawks pass defense has been bad to start the season. They have allowed a 61.3% success rate when opposing offenses have dropped back to pass and have allowed 34 catches to opposing WRs, 32nd and 28th, respectively, among teams. They have a young DB room, and a savvy veteran WR like Thielen can take advantage of that.
RB Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts: Under 53.5 rushing yards (-110)
• This number feels a bit inflated since Moss ran for 88 yards last week in a sort of blowout win vs. the Texans, where he was playing with a positive game script.
• However, Moss’ Colts are 8-point underdogs on the road to the Ravens this week, and he likely won’t see the same volume he got in Week 2.
• The Ravens run defense has been stout thus far, ranking sixth in rushing success rate allowed and ninth in EPA allowed per rush. Their defense is a bit banged up, but defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald has done a great job of adjusting his defense for the injuries suffered and has made it tough for opposing offenses to move the ball.
• Additionally, the loss of Anthony Richardson is important, as his mobility makes it harder for linebackers to flow to the run since they have to worry about him keeping it on zone reads. Gardner Minshew does not possess the same mobility, and the downgrade there also makes this under more appealing to bet.
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