• Parlay Saquon for 100 yards / TD / Giants win with Baker 250+ yards: With Barkley dominant again, Mayfield would have to throw (+1336 FanDuel).
• Parlay Tyreek / Jaylen for 80-plus yards / Tua 275+ / Dolphins win: speedy wideouts can eat vs. man-heavy, depleted BAL secondary (+2120 FD).
• Parlay Goff U 241.5 yards, 23.5 completions / 1.5 TDs with Wash. alt spread – 6.5: With weakened O-line, Goff sputters (+1200 Caesars).
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.
Story: With weak links abound on the O-line, Lions QB Jared Goff sputters and the offense gets nothing going.
• Lions QB Jared Goff sees a drastic difference in play, as you see above, when his pass blocking does the job as opposed to when the pass blocking fails. To add more context: Jared Goff is a top-15 QB in EPA when the play is perfectly blocked; he is a bottom-10 QB when the play is not perfectly blocked.• Offensive line is a weak-link system, and the Lions will be without All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, and above average lineman in Jonah Jackson, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
• Going from three players on the flat part of this curve in top right to three replacements likely on the bottom left could spell trouble for Goff — a quarterback who relies heavily on O-line performance. While the Lions are the ATS kings (12-6) in the Dan Campbell era, diminished on the O-line, they won't get anything going facing a top pass Washington pass rush.
SGP Build (+1200 Caesars):
• Jared Goff Total Passing Yards | Under 241.5
• Jared Goff Total Passing Completions | Under 23.5
• Jared Goff Total Passing Touchdowns | Under 1.5
• Alternative Spread Washington Commanders -6.5
• Josh Reynolds Total Receiving Yards | Under 24.5
Story: WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle eat against the Ravens' man -heavy scheme down multiple corners.
• As opposed to zone coverage, which is murky, man coverage lets the talent play out. Great coverage will almost always defeat weak receiving, and great receiving will almost always defeat weak coverage which is why the distribution below has wide tails.
• Since PFF started tracking in 2019, Hill has the highest separation grade against man coverage grade. Waddle was 7th in this same category in his rookie season. Facing a team that plays heavy man coverage and is thin in the secondary, Hill and Waddle are prime to take advantage and lead Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to a win.
SGP Build (+2120 FD):
• Miami Dolphins ML
• Tyreek Hill 80+ Yards
• Tua Tagovailoa 275+ Yards
• Jaylen Waddle 80+ Yards
Story: Giants ride RB Saquon Barkley to win over Carolina
• It is certainly early in the season, but the Giants really leaned into the run in Week 1 vs the Titans, finishing with close to a 15% rush rate over expected. Not only are the Giants seemingly looking to run, but Barkley ran for 165 yards on only 18 carries, displaying the efficiency that made him a promising back early in his career.
• Whether the Giants continue to remain run heavy, the matchup against Carolina is a spot to attack on the ground. Teams since 2021 ran on the Panthers at the third-highest rate over expected, and Carolina was gashed for 217 yards on the ground by the Browns last week.
• Should the Barkley go off again, it likely means the Giants would be leading. And in this game script, Baker Mayfield would have to throw in catch-up mode, rounding our last leg of our SGP.
SGP Build (+1336 FD):
• Saquon Barkley 100+ Yards
• Saquon Barkley TD
• New York Giants moneyline
• Baker Mayfield 250+ Yards