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NFL Week 1 Leveraging Tails: Bet on the mispriced Las Vegas Raiders

2RHYNGG Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) reacts on the team's touchdown during an NFL preseason football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)

• Week 1 bet: This bet combines two theories. Firstly, the Denver Broncos offense is overpriced for past Sean Payton production. Secondly, the Las Vegas Raiders are mispriced relative to understanding their offseason changes and how they match up with the Broncos.

• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”

However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.

Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.


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