NFL News & Analysis

Super Bowl 58: 5 things we learned from the Chiefs' overtime victory over the 49ers

2WHYCJT Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates their win in overtime during the NFL Super Bowl 58 football game Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024, in Las Vegas. The Kansas City Chiefs won 25-22 against the San Francisco 49ers. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Patrick Mahomes precise in big moments: The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback was more conservative than ever, but that didn’t stop him from being the best QB in football.

Trent McDuffie shines: McDuffie has become the best slot cornerback in the NFL. His shutdown coverage was key against the San Francisco 49ers’ dynamic weapons.

• 49ers struggle up front: Trent Williams was elite, as always, but the rest of the 49ers offensive line couldn’t hold up their end against Chris Jones and the Chiefs’ front seven.

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

There is a seemingly endless number of takeaways to be had after an epic Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

Patrick Mahomes conjured another magical comeback, and the Chiefs are the first back-to-back champions in nearly 20 years. The end result is the same as last season, but there is much to talk about relating to the game itself and the future of both teams moving forward.

We’ll examine a few of those takeaways here.


Patrick Mahomes’ measured magic wins again

Once again, Mahomes used a conservative yet surgical approach to win a championship. His adjustment last season to life without Tyreek Hill has been seamless.

He’s become a high-percentage passer whose goal is to gain first downs by any means necessary. Mahomes claimed his third Super Bowl trophy last night despite throwing just 26.1% of his passes beyond the sticks and posting an average depth of target of only 6.2 yards. 

To some, the Chiefs’ lack of explosiveness with Mahomes at quarterback is still shocking. This game, however, was a microcosm of his transformation.

Metric 2023 Previous low/high mark
Average Depth of Target 6.9 yards 7.4 yards (2021)
Short of Sticks % 57.8% 54.6% (2021)
Past Sticks % 33.4% 36.1% (2021)
Air Yards % 42.6% 45.4% (2021)

Mahomes is a substantially more conservative passer than he used to be. Even those previous low marks in 2021 don’t fully tell the story. In his first year as a starter in 2018, Mahomes owned the sixth-highest ADOT (average depth of target) in the NFL at 9.7 yards. This year, his 6.9-yard ADOT is the lowest among passers with at least 300 dropbacks.

This strategy proved to be the difference against San Francisco. Mahomes completed 29 of his 32 passes thrown under 10 yards. Comparatively, he completed just five-of-10 passes over 10 yards, posting a 52.7 PFF passing grade on those dropbacks.

Mahomes’ willingness to allow his weapons to make plays after the catch has won him two consecutive Super Bowls. It’s allowed him to win with less vertical threats while also keeping himself out of harm’s way.

There may come a time when Kansas City stockpiles vertical weapons like they used to have in their arsenal. Given what Mahomes has shown the past two years, though, that may not be entirely necessary.


Travis Kelce decisively wins the battle of legendary tight ends

Both Kelce and George Kittle endured slow starts in this game. While Kittle, possibly affected by his toe injury, was unable to break out of his skid, Kelce was arguably the best player on the field in the second half.

Metric First half Second half/OT
Routes 16 32
Receptions 1 8
Yards 1 92
Receiving Grade 53.5 85.6

Kelce playing well in big moments is seemingly inevitable. His ability to read coverages and win one-on-one matchups is unmatched at the position. Five of his eight second-half receptions went for first downs, and the 49ers simply didn’t have any answers for him.

As a result of his efforts, Kelce finished with a 78.9 overall PFF grade, the highest of any Chiefs offensive player. Across Kelce’s four Super Bowl appearances, he now owns an excellent 82.7 PFF receiving grade, further cementing his incredible postseason legacy.

In fact, since 2006, among players with at least 25 postseason targets, Kelce’s 90.9 postseason PFF receiving grade trails only Julio Jones (91.0). He also laps the field in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

Kelce is inarguably one of the greatest postseason performers of all time and he kept that trend going in Super Bowl LVIII.


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Trent McDuffie is a superstar

Trading Tyreek Hill was supposed to sink the Chiefs. Instead, another trade with New England netted them a first-team All-Pro cornerback who has spearheaded two consecutive championship runs.

McDuffie was incredible against the 49ers’ dynamic weapons. He led all Chiefs players with a 74.9 PFF coverage grade. He allowed just two-of-seven targets his way to be caught for a total of nine yards. He also broke up three passes and batted down a pass during arguably the game’s most important play late in the fourth quarter.

Coming into the game, Kansas City’s ability to play man coverage was an important schematic key that was sure to be a factor. 

Trent McDuffie in man coverage against the 49ers:
Snaps 23
Targets 5
Receptions 1
Yards allowed 0
Forced incompletions 3
Coverage grade 91.2

McDuffie was the primary reason that Deebo Samuel finished the game with just three catches for 33 yards. His endzone pass breakup against Samuel early in the second quarter created a massive third down stop as the Chiefs’ offense was struggling.

McDuffie’s greatest asset is his versatility. He is generally asked to play wide on early downs while also serving as the team’s primary slot cornerback. His exploits in the slot set him apart from anyone else in the NFL.

McDuffie lined up in the slot on 36 snaps during the Super Bowl. He finished the game with an 84.5 overall PFF grade on those snaps. After that excellent performance, he finishes the season in some elite and familiar company.

Among 126 players with at least 100 slot snaps this season, McDuffie’s 91.8 PFF defensive grade ties him with rookie teammate Chamarri Conner for the league lead. That mark is eight points clear of the next closest cornerback, DaRon Bland.

This is a trend that has continued from last season as well. Since Week 9 of last season, McDuffie trails only Kyle Hamilton in overall PFF grade when lined up in the slot.

McDuffie’s emergence is the primary reason why Kansas City has arguably the best secondary in the NFL. He is the league’s premier slot cornerback. With the massive uptick of nickel defenses in recent years, teams should look to build their defenses around players like McDuffie.


San Francisco 49ers fizzle in the trenches

Early in the game, it appeared as though the 49ers beat the Chiefs in the trenches. They got off to a rousing start on both sides of the ball before reverting primarily to how they’ve played all season.

Offensively, Trent Williams was in character, posting an outstanding 87.3 overall PFF grade. There were some nice moments for the rest of the offensive line, but the consistency is still lacking from the other four spots up front.

Metric Trent Williams All other OL
Overall Grade 87.3 57.4
Pass Blocking Grade 90.2 49.3
Pressures 0 15
Run Blocking Grade 92.2 58.4

The 49ers offensive line, beyond Williams, has been questionable all season. They are adept at running Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone schemes, but there isn’t a dynamic player outside of Williams and they struggle against teams with a good interior pass rush. 

They stood no chance against Chris Jones, who racked up six pressures and an 88.9 PFF pass-rush grade. George Karlaftis also generated six pressures lined up against the right side of the 49ers’ offensive line.

As a result, Brock Purdy was pressured on 20 of his 41 dropbacks. It’s hard for any quarterback to succeed with a 48.8% pressure rate. Purdy did the best he could, but he just couldn’t overcome the fact that he had to release the ball early on several occasions, including two potential touchdowns to open receivers.

Neither team ran the ball particularly well, but the run game is more crucial to San Francisco’s success than it is for Kansas City. Trent Williams finished the game with an elite 92.2 PFF run-blocking grade, but the performance from the rest of the group didn’t move the needle.

The 49ers finished with just 98 yards on 28 designed carries, excluding kneeldowns. Their only 10-plus-yard explosive run came on Christian McCaffrey’s second carry of the game.

The 49ers only found success running to the left side behind Williams. The lack of an efficient ground game also made things harder for Purdy in play action. Despite having the best running back in football, the 49ers couldn’t pave the way enough up front to come away champions.


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Major questions for San Francisco 49ersdefense in 2024

San Francisco’s defense played Kansas City better, especially in the first half, than they had played in recent weeks. However, it still wasn’t good enough in big moments to get them a victory.

Considering how they played down the stretch, that unit was under the most pressure heading into the Super Bowl. Now, there are serious questions about a defense that underperformed and could be missing some key pieces next season.

49ers defense from Week 14 through Super Bowl:
Overall grade 65.4 (24th)
Pass rush grade 69.7 (16th)
Coverage grade 69.5 (15th)
Run defense grade 52.4 (28th)

Through Week 13, the 49ers had the best defense in the NFL. Since then, they played like a below-average unit, especially in the run game.

Down the stretch, their defensive line and safeties were the biggest culprits. Losing Talanoa Hufanga to a torn ACL was a huge blow and forced third-round rookie Ji’Ayir Brown into a prominent role. Brown may develop into a nice player, but Hufanga’s playmaking ability and run support were sorely missed.

From Week 14 through the Super Bowl, San Francisco’s defensive line ranked 28th in the NFL with a 58.5 overall PFF grade that was primarily carried by Nick Bosa’s continually excellent pass rush production. For the second consecutive season, their defensive tackles finished in the bottom three in run defense grade.

Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead were steady against the Chiefs, but it seems odd that the 49ers’ highest-graded defenders in the Super Bowl were Deommodore Lenoir and Ji’Ayir Brown.

It’s difficult to see how the 49ers are going to add talent to this defense next season. Hufanga will be coming off a torn ACL. Stud linebacker Dre Greenlaw suffered an awful Achilles injury during the Super Bowl. Key players such as Tashaun Gipson Sr., Chase Young, and Javon Kinlaw will be free agents while the team is currently projected to be over the salary cap.

There is enough star power to surmise that the 49ers should have a good defense next season, but the depth at several spots is withering away.

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