- A change in approach coming for the Bills? Josh Allen’s 8.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season is on track for the lowest of his career. However, he pushed the ball downfield far more aggressively in Week 11, posting an 11.3-yard aDOT, his second-highest mark in a game this year.
- Jonathan Taylor's MVP buzz is not going away: Jonathan Taylor enters Week 12 as the NFL’s rushing leader, and he’s doing it the hard way. Of his 1,139 rushing yards, 74% have come after contact, with his 844 yards after contact not only leading all running backs but ranking as the fourth-highest rushing total in the league on its own.
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NFL Week 12 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.
PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 12 contest.
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BUF@HOU | NYJ@BAL | PIT@CHI | NE@CIN | NYG@DET | MIN@GB | IND@KC | SEA@TEN | JAX@ARI | CLE@LV | PHI@DAL | ATL@NO | TB@LAR | CAR@SF
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Josh Allen’s 8.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season is on track for the lowest of his career, but he pushed the ball downfield far more aggressively in Week 11, posting an 11.3-yard aDOT, his second-highest mark in a game this year. He was highly effective on throws of 10-plus yards, completing eight of his 13 attempts for 181 yards and two touchdowns for a 145.0 passer rating. The Texans' secondary will present a tougher challenge on those downfield attempts, as they rank in the top seven with a 46% completion rate and a 76.9 passer rating allowed on such throws.
After a slower start to the season, Nico Collins has surged over the past three weeks, leading all pass-catchers in targets (34) and ranking third in receiving yards (303) over that span. He has been especially productive beyond the sticks, where his 15 conversions are tied for the league lead and his five contested catches rank second in that same span.
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Rookie Armand Membou appears to have settled in as a pass protector over the past few weeks. Through his first seven games, he allowed 20 total pressures and gave up pressure on 7.5% of his pass-blocking snaps. Since Week 8, however, he has taken a noticeable step forward in consistency, surrendering just two pressures over his last three games, a sharp improvement to a 2.3% pressure rate.
Membou and the rest of the offensive line will face a major test this week against a Ravens defense coming off one of its best pass-rush showings of the season. Baltimore generated 13 quick pressures last week — a season high — and its 39.4% quick-pressure rate ranked as the ninth-highest single-game mark by any defense in 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
The Steelers defense leads the NFL with 15 batted passes at the line of scrimmage this season, and they could add to that total this week against Caleb Williams. Williams has had 12 passes batted in 2025, tied for the most in the league, and his 24 batted passes since entering the NFL are the second most of any quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, whether Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph starts for Pittsburgh, expect the Steelers to test Chicago vertically. The Bears have struggled against deep shots all year, allowing the second-most touchdowns (7) and second-most passing yards (692) on throws 20-plus yards downfield. That weakness should be a central part of Pittsburgh’s offensive approach.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
TreVeyon Henderson had only one game with double-digit carries over the first seven weeks of the season, but he has hit that mark in each of his last four outings. During that stretch, his toughness and finishing ability have stood out, as he ranks third among running backs in rushing yards after contact (296) and second in rushing touchdowns (4). For the season, his 4.0 yards after contact per carry trails only Jonathan Taylor (4.5) among qualifying backs.
This is an area where the Bengals have struggled, as they have allowed 3.5 yards after contact per carry, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
With Ja'Marr Chase serving a one-game suspension, Tee Higgins is likely to see plenty of Christian Gonzalez in this matchup. Contested targets have become routine for Higgins, whose 26 lead the league, while his 11 contested catches rank tied for sixth. His 41% contested-target rate is his highest since his rookie year.
Completing passes against Gonzalez has been a difficult task, as he has allowed just a 44% catch rate, tied for fourth among qualifying cornerbacks.
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
Pressure is the key to disrupting the Lions' passing game, as evidenced Sunday night when Jared Goff completed just one of 13 passes under pressure and took two sacks. His 34.2 passing grade under pressure in 2025 is his lowest since his rookie year and ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Giants’ best chance to exploit that weakness comes from their edge depth, as they are the only team with three edge defenders who each have at least 30 pressures: Brian Burns (37), Abdul Carter (35) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (32).
In the absence of Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy has seen usage that mirrors his rookie-season workload, and he delivered in Week 11 with a season-high 23 touches for 139 total yards and six conversions. He was particularly tough to bring down, tying his career best with six missed tackles forced. Replicating that effort will be a challenge against a Lions defense that leads the league with just 58 missed tackles this year.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
How each offense handles the blitz could very well determine the outcome of this matchup. Minnesota is once again one of the league’s most aggressive defenses under Brian Flores, blitzing on 52% of opposing dropbacks — the highest rate in the NFL.
Jordan Love has historically handled Flores’ pressure packages well. In four previous meetings, he has completed 66% of his passes with a 93.6 passer rating, throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions, and he has been extremely difficult to sack. Despite the heavy pressure, Love has gone down just five times on 100 blitzed dropbacks. Since 2023, his 4.1% sack rate when blitzed is the second lowest in the NFL, behind only Bo Nix (3.3%).
Minnesota’s offense, meanwhile, has struggled significantly when defenses send extra rushers. The Vikings own a 66.1 passer rating against the blitz (31st) and a 50% completion rate (32nd), making pressure a clear problem area heading into this matchup with a Packers defense that thrives in those situations.
Green Bay has been elite when blitzing this season, allowing a league-low 3.5 yards per play and a 66.3 passer rating, also the best mark in the league. On paper, this matchup heavily favors the Packers’ defense unless Minnesota finds answers against pressure.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Jonathan Taylor enters Week 12 as the NFL’s rushing leader, and he’s doing it the hard way. Of his 1,139 rushing yards, 74% have come after contact, with his 844 yards after contact not only leading all running backs but ranking as the fourth-highest rushing total in the league on its own.
Taylor’s power and balance have been unmatched. His 4.5 yards after contact per carry leads the NFL and marks a career high, underscoring just how dominant he has been at generating his own production this season.
The Chiefs defense will give him a legitimate test. Kansas City has allowed just 2.5 yards after contact per attempt on designed runs — the fourth-lowest figure in the league — creating a direct strength-on-strength matchup against Taylor’s physical running style. Linebacker Nick Bolton, whose 19 run stops lead the Chiefs, will be central to Kansas City’s effort to keep Taylor from taking over the game.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
Explosive pass plays have been hard to come by against the Seahawks defense since Mike Macdonald took over. Seattle is allowing explosives on just 11% of opponent pass plays this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. And this isn’t a one-year development. Since the start of 2024, the Seahawks have allowed explosives at a 12% rate, also the third-lowest mark in the league over that span.
Cedric Gray has emerged as a force in the run game in his second year with Tennessee. His 91.3 run-defense grade ranks third among all linebackers, and his 24 run stops are tied for the second most at the position.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville leans on Cover 6 more than any defense in the league this season, and the results back up the approach. When the Jaguars are in Cover 6, they allow a passer rating of just 71.3, compared to 89.1 across all other coverages.
Their pass rush also benefits from the structure. Jacksonville generates pressure on 39% of opposing dropbacks out of Cover 6, beating the 34% pressure rate they produce in every other coverage combined.
Michael Wilson’s breakout performance last week was powered by five contested catches — tied for the most by any player in a single game this season. It continued a longer trend of strong play in tight windows, as Wilson has recorded 30 contested catches since 2023, tied for the 22nd among all NFL pass-catchers in that span.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
In this matchup, both defenses are likely to commit extra bodies to slowing the run. The Browns have stacked the box at the second-highest rate in the NFL (35%) this season, producing mixed results: they allow a league-best 0.1 yards before contact per attempt, but once runners reach them, they give up a league-high 3.5 yards after contact.
The Raiders aren’t far behind, using stacked boxes on 34% of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. Las Vegas has held up better after contact than Cleveland, allowing 2.5 yards after contact per attempt.
For the rookie running backs in this matchup, creating through contact has been a strength all season. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 carries, Quinshon Judkins ranks second in the NFL with 87% of his yards coming after contact, while Ashton Jeanty ranks fifth at 84%.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas’ new-look defensive line opened strong on Monday night against the Raiders, with the Cowboys earning a season-best 78.5 pass-rush grade. Osa Odighizuwa led all defenders in Week 11 with eight pressures, while Quinnen Williams’ seven tied for second and Jadeveon Clowney’s six tied for sixth. The Eagles are vulnerable on the interior, ranking in the bottom seven in sacks allowed (8) and giving up a 17% pressure rate this season. With Lane Johnson set for an extended absence, Philadelphia also shifts from its top-graded pass-blocking lineman over the last two years (88.0) to its lowest-graded in Fred Johnson (40.8).
George Pickens has dominated single coverage this season, leading the league with 32 catches for 599 yards. But in Week 1 against the Eagles, he managed just one catch for 15 yards versus single coverage, with Quinyon Mitchell playing a significant role. Across 17 total matchups between the two, Pickens secured only two catches for 15 yards — and none of them came in true one-on-one situations.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Bijan Robinson logged a season-high 27 touches against the Panthers in Week 11, and that workload could grow even further this week with injuries to Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London. Bijan has a 21% target rate with Penix on the field this season, but that number jumps to 27% when Kirk Cousins is at quarterback.
He also leads all running backs with 26 catches for 204 yards and 11 conversions when lined up in the slot or out wide — a role that could expand even more. The Saints have faced the fewest running back targets this year (38), but they have allowed the highest receiving conversion rate at 42%.
Tyler Shough put together a promising outing against the Panthers before the Saints’ Week 11 bye, particularly on throws outside the numbers. He completed 12-of-17 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns on those attempts, good for a 149.1 passer rating.
His top option was Chris Olave, whose 104 receiving yards outside the numbers brought his season total to 424, fourth most in the league. Atlanta has held up well on the perimeter, ranking fourth best with 960 yards allowed outside the numbers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Tampa Bay ranked last in the NFL with 3.5 yards per carry and a 6% explosive rate on designed runs. Since coming out of the bye, however, the run game has looked revitalized, ranking fourth in yards per carry (5.5) and second in explosive rate (19%) on designed runs over the past two weeks.
Getting Sean Tucker more involved has helped, as the third-year UDFA leads all Buccaneers running backs in yards per carry (4.6) and explosive-carry rate (12%) this season. The Rams will present a tougher challenge, entering the week ranked fifth-best with a 9% explosive-carry rate allowed.
On the other side, Matthew Stafford was slowed for the first time in a while against Seattle, but he still managed to throw two touchdowns off play action, bringing his season total to a league-leading 14. Stafford also leads all quarterbacks in play-action passing grade (93.9) and is the only passer to clear 1,000 play-action yards this season at 1,026.
Tampa Bay has faced play-action at the third-lowest rate in the league (20%), but they have struggled to defend it, allowing 9.7 yards per play, the highest mark in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Bryce Young’s franchise-record 448 passing yards were driven by elite efficiency from a clean pocket. He produced a career-high 337 clean-pocket yards, completing 25 of 35 attempts with a 130.3 passer rating in those situations.
His receivers also carried a major share of the production. Carolina piled up 245 yards after the catch — the third-highest single-game YAC total by any team this season.
Replicating that after-the-catch success will be much tougher this week. San Francisco’s defense has been one of the league’s best at limiting YAC, allowing just 4.3 yards after the catch per reception, the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL.
On the other side of the matchup, George Kittle continues to thrive in tight windows. He is a perfect 7-for-7 on contested targets this season, and since entering the league in 2017, he leads all tight ends with 73 contested catches.
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