NFL Betting 2022: Under-reactions to win totals in Week 2

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) gets tackled by New York Giants linebacker Jihad Ward (55) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. Nfl New York Giants At Tennessee Titans

Bet Titans UNDER 8 wins: Their offensive plan is more predictable than ever (Derrick Henry had only one 10+ yard run in 21 carries vs. Giants).

Bet Lions OVER 6.5 wins: ATS spread darlings in 2021 (11-6, 64.7%), they have a clear formula but also a true wild card in Jared Goff (47.6 Week 1 grade).

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Estimated reading time: 3 mins

Bet: Tennessee Titans UNDER 8 wins (BetMGM)

• Titans' fall from grace continues: They squandered a 13-point lead after halftime at home to the Giants and are a far different team than last year’s top AFC seed. RB Derrick Henry — more predictably than ever the lifeblood of their offense — had a rough day with only 80 yards on 21 attempts, fumbling once, and solely one run of 10+ yards.

• Brown replacement plan: Ryan Tannehill’s began life after AJ Brown targeting fifth-round rookie Kyle Philips nine times, including  six catches for 66 yards. The guy they drafted to replace Brown, first-rounder Treylon Burks made three catches on five targets for 55 yards. The Titans took a chance this offseason on injured veteran WR Robert Woods, but he had solely a catch for 13 yards despite leading the team in passing down snaps.

• Difficult schedule: As the former No. 1 seed, the Titans don’t exactly have the easiest schedule. They get the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans twice a piece this season, but there are no real “gimme” games other than the Cowboys, should Prescott miss the rest of the season.

• Bet Titans UNDER 8 wins: It's going to be tough sledding for the Titans, an undervalued bet for fewer than eight wins.

Bet: Detroit Lions OVER 6.5 wins (DraftKings)

• Lions' arrow up: Conversely, the Detroit Lions appear ready to ascend in 2022. Last season, they went 11-6 against the spread — No. 4 in the NFL (64.7%) — and beat it again in Week 1, losing 35-32 at home to the Philadelphia Eagles. At least five of their next eight games appear winnable: the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, and Bears, whom the Lions also play in the finale.

• Wildcard is Goff: But the most significant variable is Jared Goff, who didn’t play well Sunday despite the Lions covering, with a 47.6 passing grade, two turnover-worthy plays and only 56.8% of his passes completed. Goff particularly struggled downfield, completing only 3-of-11 passes of more than 10 yards. The Lions had four drops in the game, but none came on these passes.

• Swift and Hutch: The Lions must depend more on running back D’Andre Swift, who had 144 rushing yards on only 15 carries, including a touchdown and five runs of 10 yards or more. Meantime, Detroit’s blue-collar ‘D’ managed 19 pressures (three from top pick Aidan Hutchinson) and a sack vs. a great Eagles front.

• Bet Lions OVER 6.5 wins: There are easier matchups ahead for a potentially tough weekly out in the Lions, who shouldn’t be discounted to notch seven or or even eight wins.

— PFF contributor Richard Janvrin


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