· Tease Eagles (from -6.5 to -.5) vs. Jaguars, Cardinals (from +1.5 to +7.5) at Panthers (-120): · Philly PFF’s top-graded team, with an 83.3 mark, including No. 1 on offense (78.8); Panthers dead-last in EPA / Play, 23rd in Yards / Play.
· Potential Week 4 teaser leg: Broncos from +2.5 to +8.5: Denver has allowed the fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, including only one touchdown.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 4 min
With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of just betting on sides and totals are over.
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow
• Never Cross over 0
• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7
• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.
Four potential teaser legs in Week 4, along with our favorite two-team, six-point teaser
Arizona Cardinals (from +1.5 to +7.5) at Carolina Panthers
· Both the Cardinals and the Panthers have started the 2022 season in disappointing fashion. Carolina ranks dead-last in offensive EPA/play and 23rd in yards per play (5.1). Christian McCaffrey is questionable with a quad injury after missing a pair of practices, and Baker Mayfield is unlikely to lead this team to an eight-point win. Mayfield currently has the worst success rate among QBs, and even if McCaffrey does play, Carolina does not win by eight or more.
Denver Broncos (from +2.5 to +8.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
· As odd as this might sound, the Broncos are a few fumbles away from being 3-0. Thanks to a dominant defense, they have a 2-1 record and are looking to get their first win vs a divisional opponent.
· Denver's strength on defense is against the pass. The Broncos have allowed the fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, while only giving up one touchdown.
· Even if the Raiders finally figure it out on the offensive side of the ball, Denver’s defense should be able to limit the damage and keep it within a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles (from -6.5 to -.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
· Last week we used the Eagles in this situation. We are going back to the well, as the Eagles provide excellent value teased down to -.5, where they only have to win straight up to cash their leg.
· Coming off a great road win against the Chargers to snap an 18-game skid outside of Jacksonville, the Jaguars are much improved under Doug Pederson in 2022. But now they must travel again, facing arguably the best team in the NFL.
· The Eagles are PFF’s top-graded team, with an overall 83.3 mark, including the No. 1 offense (78.8).
· The Jaguars are solid defensively, but their weakness is defending the pass, and Philadelphia boasts the NFL's No. 1 aerial attack.
Atlanta Falcons (from +1.5 to +7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
· Another team we are using again in Week 4 in Atlanta. On paper, the Browns look like the clear-cut favorite in this matchup. But there is a reason they are only favored by 1.5 points.
· The Falcons have been competitive in every game thus far. As crazy at it might sound, one could make a case for them easily being 3-0. They nearly beat both the Saints and Rams in back-to-back weeks, losing by one score, before finally earning a win last week against the Seahawks.
· This has the making of an offensive showdown, as both defenses tend to give up big plays down the field. Both the Falcons (28th) and the Browns (23rd) rank in the bottom 10 defensively in EPA/play.
· Offensively, the Falcons have been able to go point for point with their opponents. Atlanta’s offense has the second-highest success rate (51.3%) and 10th best EPA/Play (.009). Cleveland's defensive backs are a weak point, and without injured pass rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, this secondary can once again be exposed.
Favorite Week 4 Teaser Bet: Cardinals +7.5 / Eagles -.5 (-120)
Kurt's Week 3 teasers went 2-0 (+2 units)