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2022 NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes remains the PFF favorite, Justin Herbert climbs into top 4

Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Mahomes' Dominance: Patrick Mahomes' Week 1 showcase keeps him firmly as the PFF favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP award.

Herbert Climbs One Spot: Justin Herbert took over the No. 4 spot, with his 2022 MVP odds climbing to 8.5%, after Aaron Rodgers' slide.

Burrow No Longer a Favorite: A Week 1 dud pushed Joe Burrow from the favorites list down to No. 16.

Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins

Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season is in the books, and if you ask around for MVP favorites, the three most likely answers should be Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert — and rightfully so. These quarterbacks highlight our group of MVP favorites, but we shouldn’t write off a certain 45-year-old quarterback just yet…

Every week throughout the season, we will rank quarterbacks by their estimated MVP chances. These chances are based on simulating the remaining season and looking at individual efficiency stats as well as team success. The full methodology can be found in our initial version of this year’s MVP rankings.

The Favorites

The following 10 quarterbacks are the only ones left with odds shorter than 30-to-1, and it’s very likely that one of them will be crowned MVP.

Quarterbacks not on this list anymore include Dak Prescott (who is obviously out of the race because of his unfortunate injury) and Joe Burrow. We weren’t high on Burrow’s MVP chances to begin with, and his Week 1 performance with four interceptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers surely didn’t help.


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