- Rashee Rice carries significant risk: Potential changes to his role, recurring availability concerns and increased competition for targets make Rice difficult to trust at his 3.03 consensus ADP.
- Davante Adams faces touchdown regression: Adams scored a league-high 14 touchdowns last season, but his receptions and receiving yards per game were his lowest since 2015.
- Practice with PFF's Mock Draft Simulator: Run your own reps with your exact league settings, then put this round-by-round plan into action before draft day.
Fantasy football drafts are often driven by what players have done, rather than what they are likely to do next. As a result, wide receivers can become overvalued when managers assume recent production will continue unchanged despite shifts in quarterback play, target competition or age-related decline.
The wide receivers featured in this article are being drafted as though they will replicate their recent production. However, there are legitimate reasons to expect a decline in fantasy output.
The average draft position listed is a consensus from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Wednesday, Aug. 26
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 3.03)
Rice finished fourth among wide receivers in fantasy points per game last season at 18.8, despite playing only eight games. He missed the first six due to suspension and the final three because of a concussion.
His 77.2 receiving grade was relatively modest for a player with that level of fantasy production. Rice’s role has been remarkably consistent across his three seasons, with his average depth of target landing between 4.9 and 5.2 yards each year. He has thrived as a high-volume, short-area receiver who generates much of his value after the catch rather than downfield.
That role could change this season. The Chiefs replaced Matt Nagy with Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator, and Bieniemy’s offenses have historically featured wide receivers with deeper target profiles. During his first stint in Kansas City, most Chiefs wide receivers averaged more than 9.0 yards downfield per target. Even JuJu Smith-Schuster, who led the team’s wide receivers in targets during Bieniemy’s final season, had a 7.1-yard average depth of target. Curtis Samuel posted the same mark as Washington’s second-most-targeted wide receiver during Bieniemy’s lone season there. After Kansas City’s short-area passing attack produced mixed results last season, there is reason to believe the offense could become more aggressive downfield.
There are also concerns beyond Rice’s role. He has finished each of the past two seasons on injured reserve and underwent another procedure on his right knee during OTAs. He also served a jail sentence for violating the terms of his probation, costing him valuable offseason time. During his absence, rookie Cyrus Allen had an opportunity to build chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and could compete with Rice for snaps in the slot. Given Rice’s recent availability issues, Kansas City also has reason to avoid making the passing game as dependent on him as it has been in the past.
Rice’s ADP already accounts for some of this uncertainty, as he is no longer being drafted like a top-five wide receiver. Still, a third-round price assumes he will remain one of fantasy football’s most productive receivers when healthy. The combination of potential changes to his role, recurring availability concerns and increased competition makes that a risky assumption.
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 4.12)
Adams has been a fantasy starter at wide receiver for a decade. He gained at least 880 receiving yards every season from 2016 to 2024 and reached double-digit touchdowns in most of them. But he will be 34 before the season ends, and his days as a top-10 fantasy receiver are likely over. His play has already begun to slip: He earned PFF receiving grades of 87.0 or better each season from 2017 to 2022, but that has fallen to 84.0 or lower in each of the past three.
Adams joined the Rams last season, where he averaged 4.3 receptions and 56.4 yards per game, his lowest marks since 2015. He landed in an offense built around Puka Nacua, on a team that often won and ran out the clock late. Los Angeles also leaned into 13 personnel down the stretch, and Adams was on the field for only 28.3% of its 13-personnel snaps when healthy.
Despite the dip in receptions and yardage, Adams still finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver in points per game because he scored a league-high 14 touchdowns. He saw 57.4% of the Rams' end-zone targets, the highest share among wide receivers, drawing 25 end-zone targets and converting 13 into scores. Both were the second-most for a receiver in a season over the past 20 years, trailing only Randy Moss in 2007.
The problem is that end-zone touchdowns aren't reliably consistent from one season to the next. No wide receiver in the past 20 seasons has posted back-to-back years with double-digit end-zone touchdowns. If Adams matches his receptions and yards per game but scores five fewer touchdowns, he falls from top-10 in fantasy points to 25th.
Terrance Ferguson, a 2025 second-round tight end, is expected to take on a bigger role this season and should be a red-zone threat of his own. Adams should still be an asset to Los Angeles in its pursuit of another Super Bowl, but his footing as a fantasy starter gets shakier if his role shrinks and the touchdowns regress. He could be a frustrating WR3, with big weeks when he finds the end zone and quiet ones when he doesn't.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (ADP: 7.09)
Sutton has spent most of the past seven seasons as the top receiver in the Broncos' offense. He missed nearly all of 2020 with an injury, and in 2022, Jerry Jeudy ended up with more yards. But that role did not lead to much fantasy success until Sean Payton took over as head coach and turned Sutton into a touchdown machine. Sutton’s 25 receiving touchdowns over the past three seasons rank sixth among all wide receivers, and he has finished 26th and 21st in fantasy points per game the past two years.
Denver has spent several high draft picks on young receivers recently, taking Marvin Mims Jr. in 2023, Troy Franklin in 2024 and Pat Bryant in 2025, and none has cut into Sutton's playing time so far. The Broncos didn't draft a receiver this year, but they traded their first-round pick for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle owns a 90.0 PFF receiving grade over the past three seasons, 12th among all wide receivers, while Sutton's 80.7 ranks 32nd.
At 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds, Sutton has fit nicely as an X receiver throughout his career, while Waddle is more of a Z and slot. The two could coexist fine on their own, but the complication is that Denver still has the three young receivers it believes in, and Payton has a long history of rotating his receivers.
Franklin and Mims will likely rotate in the slot and take a few snaps from Waddle at Z. Bryant began his career as Sutton's backup at X, playing there throughout the preseason, and only saw more time once he moved to Z. It is entirely possible Bryant shifts back to X and cuts further into Sutton's snaps.
Sutton signed an extension a year ago but will turn 31 early in the season, and the Broncos could move on from him after the year if Bryant plays well enough. To find out whether Bryant is ready, they have to give him the reps.
The one reason Sutton remains a flex option is his scoring history, and even then, he projects as a frustrating, touchdown-dependent play. Normally, a starting receiver doesn't gain much when a backup goes down. But in Denver, an injury to any of the depth receivers could lift the playing time and target share of everyone else.
Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 10.09)
Meyers was a consistently underrated receiver in four years with the New England Patriots and two-and-a-half with the Las Vegas Raiders. His PFF receiving grades have stayed solid, between 71.0 and 80.0 in each of the past six seasons. Meyers’ role has steadily grown, producing WR29 finishes in both 2021 and 2022, a WR24 in 2023 and a WR19 in 2024, before he fell to WR32 in 2025.
Meyers started 2025 atop the Raiders' depth chart with a strong opening stretch but was less involved from Weeks 4 to 6. He then sat out a few games, played against the Jaguars in Week 9 and was traded to Jacksonville a few days later. He was acquired in part because of the Travis Hunter injury but ended up taking over as the Z receiver.
From Weeks 12 to 18, Meyers led Jacksonville's receivers in routes and receptions, but Parker Washington filled Hunter's slot role and paced the group in receiving yards. Meyers ranked 24th in fantasy points per game over that stretch, while Washington was 11th.
The best case is that Meyers stays the Z receiver in both two- and three-receiver sets with a normal starter's workload. An offseason to learn the offense and build chemistry with Trevor Lawrence should sharpen his efficiency, putting a top-20 fantasy season within reach.
Several complications remain, though. Hunter should be back and is expected to feature on both offense and defense. Washington has emerged as the team's best receiver, and if he and Hunter are on the field together, that could push Meyers off it. Reports throughout OTAs have been more positive about Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. than Meyers, so there is a chance those two see a higher target rate this season at Meyers' expense.
Jacksonville also drafted two tight ends, which should mean more 12 and 13 personnel and fewer receivers on the field. Meyers was consistently featured in two-receiver sets but was the least likely wideout to be out there in single-receiver looks.
Wan'Dale Robinson, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 11.02)
Robinson spent the first four seasons of his career primarily as a slot receiver for the New York Giants. Injuries hampered his first two seasons, but he emerged as a frequent target in 2024. His 93 receptions ranked 10th among wide receivers, though his 699 receiving yards ranked just 44th. His 5.3-yard average depth of target was the lowest by a wide receiver with at least 125 targets since Wes Welker with the New England Patriots in 2008.
Robinson’s role expanded to include two-receiver sets in 2025 after Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending injury. His targets per route run increased, as did his average depth of target. His first-down total barely changed, but his explosive plays doubled, helping him produce a career-high 1.87 yards per route run. He finished 14th among wide receivers in fantasy points and 17th in points per game.
His playcaller, Brian Daboll, left to become the Tennessee Titans’ offensive coordinator, and Robinson followed him, signing a four-year, $70 million contract with $38 million guaranteed. Having a playcaller willing to lean on him is a positive, but Robinson will also face significantly more competition for targets. Once Nabers went down, the only other Giants wide receiver with more than 10 receptions was Darius Slayton.
The Titans drafted Carnell Tate with the fourth overall pick, and he is expected to play Z and lead the team in targets. Calvin Ridley returns at X after missing most of last season with an injury. Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, who spent much of last season playing in 11 personnel, now project as backups. Robinson could return to playing primarily in 11 personnel, and Dike could even take some of those snaps. When the Titans have used 12 personnel with the starters this preseason, Ridley and Tate have been the two wide receivers on the field, further indicating that Robinson’s role will shrink from last season. That should mean fewer routes and, in turn, fewer targets.
Robinson should still see enough volume to be a weekly flex option, but his upside is limited as long as Tennessee’s other wide receivers remain healthy.
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