• D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Tre Avery, Tennessee Titans: Metcalf should register multiple explosive pass plays against Avery’s lacking coverage.

• WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders vs. CB Michael Carter II, New York Jets: Dotson cannot be trusted to produce as a half-PPR WR4 or better against Carter.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players to be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 16.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Tre Avery, Tennessee Titans

Metcalf has delivered varying results since missing Week 7 due to hip and ribs injuries, but his primary coverage foe, Tennessee cornerback Tre Avery, offers easy explosive-pass-play access en route to a WR1 finish. Metcalf should build on his 17th-ranked 81.4 PFF receiving grade (among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 325 receiving snaps) against Avery and his 104th-ranked 49.9 PFF coverage grade (among 117 NFL cornerbacks with at least 155 coverage snaps).

Metcalf runs routes lined up wide-left pre-snap at a 56.2% rate, followed by 28.4% wide-right and a 15.4% slot rate. Avery correspondingly lines up on the defensive-right at a 74.4%% rate.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Metcalf respectively excellent 94.1 and 88.0 receiving matchup advantage ratings against Avery and left cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.

Metcalf ranks in the top 12 in both missed tackles forced (13) and explosive pass plays (26) among qualifying NFL wide receivers, deriving much of that production from his field-stretching wide-left role.

Among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 145 wide-left receiving snaps, Metcalf ranks seventh in yards per route run (2.41), sixth in target rate (23.4%), average depth of target (15.9, aDot) and yards per reception (18.2), third in missed tackles forced (seven) and second in yards after the catch per reception (6.0) and explosive pass plays (17).

Among 65 cornerbacks with at least 80 right-side coverage snaps, Avery ranks 62nd or worse in targeted rate (22.2%), catch rate allowed (80.8%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.85) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (6.0%).

Metcalf is one of nine NFL wide receivers to earn at least nine splash-zone targets when lined up wide left, ranking first across the board in yards per reception (26.7), yards after the catch per reception (12.5) and yards per route run (17.78). The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Tennessee’s splash-zone coverage unit ties for 25th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (42.3%) and ranks 27th in catch rate allowed (61.5%) and 30th in yards allowed per coverage snap (13.40).

Metcalf is an elite WR1.

WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions vs. CB Byron Murphy Jr., Minnesota Vikings

Williams ascended to the No. 2 wide receiver role in Week 15, logging 26 receiving snaps, the second-most among Detroit wide receivers, and now faces a winnable quasi-shadow matchup against cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. Williams earned a season-best 76.5 PFF offense grade in his expanded Week 15 role. Murphy’s 58.2 PFF coverage grade ranks sixth among Minnesota's six 2023 cornerbacks. Williams is a high-ceiling WR3 against the Vikings.

As detailed in Week 16’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Detroit will employ a high-volume play-action passing game, playing in Minnesota’s U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings' play-action coverage defense is among the league’s best, but Detroit quarterback Jared Goff’s play-action lethality, particularly indoors, quells concerns.

Among 20 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 indoor play-action dropbacks, Goff’s 85.1 PFF passing grade and his 9.5 yards per passing attempt both rank fifth.

The game’s 46.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 16’s second highest.

Minnesota frequently utilizes Murphy as the primary coverage defender for the opposition’s field-stretcher, though cornerback Akayleb Evans (6-foot-2, 198 pounds) occasionally plays a featured role in this regard when the wide receiver is both thinly built and mildly to moderately talented. Williams’ 6-foot-1, 189-pound frame fits the former, but his 2022 first-round draft capital accurately reflects his talent, making Murphy his likely primary coverage foe.

Williams runs routes at a 38.5% wide-left pre-snap alignment plurality, followed by a 32.7% slot rate and a 28.8% wide-right rate. Murphy ranks second among Minnesota defensive backs in both perimeter coverage snaps (338) and slot coverage snaps (190), and he can be expected to frequently follow Williams, regardless of Williams’ pre-snap alignment.

Murphy possesses excellent side-to-side agility but lacks straight-line speed, creating an obvious leverage point for Williams, who in Week 13 cleared 20.0-plus mph on four of sixteen career touches, the NFL's best rate since 2022, per Next Gen Stats.

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has featured Williams since Week 11, sending at least two first-read targets his way in four of five games and exactly one splash-zone target each week. Williams notched one contested catch, one missed tackle forced and one explosive pass play on his season-high seven Week 15 targets but broke a two-game streak in which he also factored in as a rusher.

Among 69 NFL cornerbacks with at least 330 coverage snaps, Murphy ranks 45th or worse in targeted rate (15.2%), catch rate allowed (66.7%), forced incompletion rate (8.3%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.30) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.7%). Only six NFL cornerbacks have allowed more explosive pass plays than Murphy’s 15.

Williams is a high-ceiling WR3.

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs. CB Deonte Banks, New York Giants

Smith finished as the WR31 and WR41 over the past two weeks, respectively, but a Week 16 matchup against the Giants offers high-scoring bounce-back potential. Among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 325 receiving snaps, Smith’s 74.6 PFF receiving grade ranks 26th.

FanDuel implies Philadelphia will score 27.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Philadelphia a 19.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 16’s fourth best. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ 86.1 PFF passing grade on non-pressured dropbacks ranks 15th among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 non-pressured dropbacks, and his 5.5% big-time-throw rate ranks ninth.

Smith runs routes lined up wide-left pre-snap at a 37.4% plurality rate, followed by a 31.7% slot rate and a 30.1% wide-right rate. The deployment gives Smith access to New York’s three starting cornerbacks, Deonte Banks (right), Adoree Jackson (left) and Cor’Dale Flott (slot), with Banks serving as his primary coverage defender.

The table below ranks in parentheses Banks’ and Jackson’s perimeter coverage data among 67 cornerbacks with at least 240 perimeter coverage snaps and Flott’s slot coverage data among 33 cornerbacks with at least 160 slot snaps.

Among 64 wide receivers with at least 325 receiving snaps, Smith ranks 22nd in yards per route run (1.78), 21st in average depth of target (12.5), tied for 16th in explosive pass plays (23) and 11th in catch rate (72.5%). Smith crucially ties for 16th in explosive pass plays via first-read targets (19) and ranks eighth in yards per first-read-target receptions (15.6), ranked among 36 wide receivers with at least 60 first-read targets.

New York’s cornerback corps fails to contain receivers on first-read targets, tying for 28th in yards allowed per coverage snap (4.27) and ranking 29th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (9.7%).

Smith is a half-PPR WR2.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders vs. CB Michael Carter II, New York Jets

Dotson cannot be trusted to return top-48 half-points-per-reception positional value against New York’s elite pass defense. Although Dotson runs routes from the slot at a 42.4% pre-snap alignment plurality, signaling a difficult matchup against elite slot cornerback Michael Carter II, Dotson’s 58.2 PFF slot receiving grade ranks 28th among 34 receivers with at least 150 slot receiving snaps. Carter’s 79.9 PFF slot coverage grade ranks second among 33 cornerbacks with at least 160 slot coverage snaps.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Dotson a poor 10.3 receiving matchup advantage rating against Carter. The matchup chart likewise gives Dotson respectively poor 1.3 and 4.3 receiving matchup advantage ratings against New York’s Nos. 1 and 2 perimeter cornerbacks, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.

As detailed in Week 16’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Washington’s passing game has significant matchup-based and personnel concerns against New York, creating an unfriendly fantasy environment for the struggling second-year wide receiver.

The table below ranks in parentheses Dotson’s slot receiving data among 34 receivers with at least 150 slot-receiving snaps.

The table below ranks in parentheses Carter’s slot-coverage data among 33 cornerbacks with at least 160 slot-coverage snaps.

Dotson cannot be trusted to return top-48 half-PPR positional value.

WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots vs. CB Ja’Quan McMillian, Denver Broncos

The rookie Douglas already has established himself as the team’s best wide receiver. His 77.7 PFF receiving grade ranks first among New England wide receivers with at least 25 targets, as does his 25.3% target rate and 1.93 yards per route run. He wins via quick-hitting, short-area routes and faces a near-shadow matchup against Denver slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian (64.8 PFF coverage grade), who has built a strong case to be the league’s No. 1 short-area slot cornerback, grading out just 0.1 points behind Denver No. 1 cornerback Pat Surtain II (64.9 PFF coverage grade) in coverage. Douglas is a low-ceiling, half-PPR WR4.

As detailed in Week 16’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” fantasy managers should expect this contest to devolve into a run-heavy slog. The game’s 34.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 16’s lowest. FanDuel implies New England will score just 14 points.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Douglas to face McMillian on 15 of 23 receiving snaps.

Douglas’ 8.6-yard average depth of target ranks 29th among 44 receivers with at least 145 slot-receiving snaps. He relies heavily on his post-catch ability, with three missed tackles forced (tied for 14th) and 5.6 yards after the catch (eighth) from the slot.

The table below ranks in parentheses McMillian’s coverage data within one to nine yards from the line of scrimmage among 33 cornerbacks with at least 55 slot coverage snaps in that area of the field.

Douglas is a low-ceiling, half-PPR WR4.

WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans vs. CB Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns

Houston’s offense is reportedly trending toward returning its No. 1 and highest-graded wide receiver Nico Collins (86.8 PFF receiving grade), while breakout rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud expects to sit another week in the NFL’s concussion protocol. Stroud’s 78.2 PFF passing grade ties for 14th among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks. The confluence of events, coupled with a tough matchup, bodes poorly for journeyman wide receiver Noah Brown, whose respectable 77.0 PFF receiving grade trails Collins’ mark. Brown is a shaky WR4.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Houston a -42.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 16’s second-worst mark, and fill-in quarterback Case Keenum received a 35.6 PFF passing grade on his pressured dropbacks last week, ranking 26th among 27 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 pressured dropbacks.

Brown runs routes lined up in the slot pre-snap at a 43.4% plurality rate, followed by a 29.4% wide-right rate and a 27.2% wide-left rate, signaling an impending matchup between Brown and Cleveland slot cornerback Greg Newsome II, whose 69.5 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 12th among 33 cornerbacks with at least 160 slot coverage snaps.

Brown is efficient on his workload (2.21 yards per route run when aligned in the slot, seventh) but struggles to earn targets consistently and fails to fight through contact when he does. Among 67 NFL slot receivers with at least 100 slot receiving snaps, Brown ranks 31st in target rate (16.2%), tied for 35th in contested catch rate (16.2%) and tied for 48th in missed tackles forced (zero).

The table below ranks in parentheses Newsome’s slot coverage data among 33 cornerbacks with at least 160 slot coverage snaps.

Brown faces a stiff test against Cleveland’s elite perimeter coverage unit on his non-slot snaps. Cleveland’s perimeter cornerbacks rank first in catch rate allowed (50.7%) and tied for sixth in forced incompletion rate (16.7%). Among 85 wide receivers with at least 135 perimeter receiving snaps, Brown’s 25.0% contested catch rate ties for 73rd.

Brown is a shaky WR4.