The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format, which blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing six players.
The format's biggest wrinkle is the ability to choose one captain (CPT) who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.
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This season, I’m going to analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.
There are five main components to this Week 1 Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:
- A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Los Angeles Rams–Chicago Bears as an illustration of the matching process: 2014 Week 2 Baltimore Ravens–Pittsburgh Steelers, which featured Joe Flacco as Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger playing the role of Andy Dalton.
- Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams based on the results of similar historical matchups.
- Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2020 showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
- Recent CPT ownership trends illustrated for both starting lineups.
- A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups, which allows you to see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.
To analyze this specific showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies to this contest according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).
I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration purposes, let’s look at the most similar matchup:
|Joe Flacco||QB||BAL||Matthew Stafford||QB||LAR|
|Justin Forsett||RB||BAL||Darrell Henderson Jr.||RB||LAR|
|Steve Smith||WR||BAL||Robert Woods||WR||LAR|
|Dennis Pitta||TE||BAL||Tyler Higbee||TE||LAR|
|Ben Roethlisberger||QB||PIT||Andy Dalton||QB||CHI|
|Le'Veon Bell||RB||PIT||David Montgomery||RB||CHI|
|Antonio Brown||WR||PIT||Allen Robinson II||WR||CHI|
|Heath Miller||TE||PIT||Cole Kmet||TE||CHI|
The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Rams -7.5, 46.5 O/U versus this matchup at Ravens -2.5, 44 O/U). All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.
The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this showdown slate, would have been:
|Player||Team||Position||Roster Position||Fantasy Pts|
For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold, assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.
CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN