Fantasy football Week 1 booms and busts: Caleb Williams, Ja’Marr Chase and more

• Caleb Williams delivers the biggest boom: Williams scored 37.3 fantasy points against a 16.7-point projection, the largest positive differential on the board.

• Ja’Marr Chase leads the Week 1 busts: Chase scored 1.2 fantasy points against a 19.4-point projection despite running a route on 97.3% of Cincinnati’s passing plays.

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Fantasy projections provide a baseline for what to expect each week, but the NFL rarely follows the script exactly.

Nathan Jahnke’s Week 1 fantasy projections gave fantasy managers that starting point, and the opening slate produced several significant swings in both directions. Using those projections alongside the data available in PFF Premium Stats and Premium Stats Pro, here are three of the week’s biggest booms and three notable busts.

BOOMS

QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Projected: 16.7 | Actual: 37.3

No player on Nathan’s board outperformed his Week 1 projection by more fantasy points than Williams, who turned a projected 16.7-point outing into a 37.3-point performance.

The Bears quarterback completed 21 of his 29 attempts for 269 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and finishing with a 124.1 passer rating. He also recorded an 80.8% adjusted completion rate, while his 72.4% raw completion rate came in 14.1 percentage points above expectation.

The explosive element was particularly important. Williams generated a 10.7-yard average depth of target and produced one big-time throw, helping him generate 0.55 EPA per play.

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Projected: 14.4 | Actual: 34.3

The Ravens running back handled 24 designed carries — a 70.6% carry share — and turned them into 144 yards and three touchdowns. More than 72% of that production came after contact, as Henry accumulated 104 yards after contact and averaged 4.33 after-contact yards per attempt.

The big plays followed. He generated four explosive runs, including two breakaway attempts that accounted for 54 yards, and added seven rushing first downs. His lone reception produced another 19 yards.

RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

Projected: 12.7 | Actual: 31.4

Swift joined his quarterback among the week’s biggest projection-beaters, exceeding his 12.7-point expectation by 18.7 fantasy points.

The veteran back earned a 90.9 PFF rushing grade after producing 124 yards and three touchdowns on 18 designed carries. His 56.3% carry share was lower than Henry’s, but his efficiency more than made up the difference: Swift averaged 6.9 yards per carry and 4.39 yards after contact per attempt.

He also forced five missed tackles on runs and generated two explosive carries. Those two breakaway runs accounted for 60 yards, or 48.4% of his rushing production.

Swift finished with 134 scrimmage yards after adding a 10-yard reception, giving him 31.4 fantasy points and the third-largest positive differential among the players in Nathan’s projections.

BUSTS

WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Projected: 19.4 | Actual: 1.2

Chase entered Week 1 with the third-highest projection in Nathan’s rankings at 19.4 fantasy points. He finished with 1.2, producing the largest negative differential in the data.

The problem was opportunity. Chase ran a route on 36 of Cincinnati’s passing plays but drew only four targets, accounting for an 11.8% team target share. He caught two passes for 12 yards and finished without a touchdown.

That left one of fantasy football’s highest-projected players averaging just 0.33 yards per route run. Three of his four opportunities were contested targets, and he converted one of those into a reception. The usage makes the result even more striking: Chase posted a 97.3% route rate, but the targets simply did not follow.

RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Projected: 18.3 | Actual: 6.6

Achane’s Week 1 result came despite commanding the type of backfield share fantasy managers generally want to see.

The Miami running back handled 11 designed carries and accounted for an 84.6% carry share, but he managed only 36 rushing yards at 3.3 yards per attempt. Just 18 of those yards came after contact, and his 1.64 yards after contact per attempt represented a significant drag on his rushing efficiency.

There was some production through the air. Achane caught all four of his targets for 30 yards, but his 29 routes yielded just 1.03 yards per route run.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Projected: 18.7 | Actual: 8.8

McCaffrey wasn’t one of the three largest numerical misses of Week 1, but his workload makes him one of the more interesting “busts” of the week.

Nathan projected the San Francisco back for 18.7 fantasy points, the fifth-highest figure in the Week 1 data. McCaffrey instead finished with 8.8 despite averaging 6.8 yards across his 10 designed carries.

His rushing efficiency was hardly the problem. McCaffrey gained 68 yards, averaged 3.9 yards after contact per attempt, forced three missed tackles and produced two explosive runs. But his 10 designed attempts represented only a 35.7% carry share.

He remained involved as a receiver, drawing eight targets and catching five, but those receptions produced only 20 yards. His 21 routes resulted in 0.95 yards per route run, and he also dropped a pass.