- Jaelan Phillips leads the way: The Miami Dolphins edge rusher is the best bet to turn his breakout NFL season from last year into a breakout IDP season in 2023.
- Two more first-round EDGEs from the 2021 class: Both Kwity Paye and Odafe Oweh have had quiet starts to their career, but Year 3 could be when they start to make some noise.
- Year 5 breakout candidate: Carl Granderson is stepping into the best opportunity yet for him to deliver a breakout season with the New Orleans Saints in 2023.
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Each season, players take their game to new levels and significantly improve their fantasy production along the way. Defensive linemen often don’t hit the ground running in the NFL, as highlighted in the chart below, so patience is key for these players to have their breakout seasons. Among those on this list, most are entering Year 3 in the NFL, and even a Year 5 player is included, highlighting reasons why this year could be their best IDP season after quieter starts to their NFL careers.
Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins
If there’s one player on this list who could already be considered to have broken out in NFL terms already but not so much for fantasy purposes, it’s Phillips. The former first-round pick proved to be among the league’s best pass-rushers in his sophomore season by posting top-tier pass-rush metrics across the board, including an 89.8 pass-rush grade that ranked sixth-best at his position. Phillips also added a 15.6% pressure rate (16th) and a 19.6% win rate (12th) in 2022, backing up his case as one of the league’s more refined pass rushers.
Phillips was missed as a fantasy asset last season in the sack column, where, despite his high-end pass-rush metrics, he only managed seven sacks on the season through 17 games. As a result, he finished at the bottom of the sacks versus expected metric (-4.3), which shouldn’t be seen as an indictment of him as a player; instead, it’s quite the opposite. Phillips’ expected sack totals are driven from the number of snaps that he plays combined with his pass-rush metrics, so those that play a lot of snaps and post strong metrics will have the highest expectations. This is a very positive sign for the season(s) ahead, as Phillips’ playing time isn’t expected to drastically change, and his key pass-rush metrics are significantly more stable than yearly sack totals. As an example, Maxx Crosby finished last in sacks versus expected in 2021 and then went on to become the top-scoring IDP in most leagues in 2022 thanks to natural positive regression. Not to say that Phillips will see that level of production increase, but there should be enough of a jump to create a true breakout season in 2023.
Helping his production will be his strong run defense and tackling ability, which will increase his production floor as an every-down player. With Vic Fangio coming in and as mentioned in a previous article, dropping into coverage less will allow him more pass-rushing opportunities to add to this year’s sack total as well. All signs are pointing to a potential top-10 edge season for Phillips in 2023, and he should be drafted as such.
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