- The Minnesota Vikings defense figures to look very different in 2023: With Brian Flores coming in, could his defensive system hurt the IDP linebackers in Minnesota?
- Miami Dolphins invest in the Fangio system: The Dolphins hired Vic Fangio as the new defensive coordinator, which expects to impact some key IDP-relevant options.
- Jim Schwartz heads to Cleveland Browns: Can Schwartz bring more fantasy stability and predictability to a Browns’ linebacker corps that has been lacking in that regard in recent years?
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
The NFL coaching landscape looks different every season and as a result, various schemes and play-calling strategies tend to shift for teams, sometimes dramatically. By taking a deeper look at some of the teams with new defensive play-callers, fantasy managers should get a better understanding of what these new coaches’ tendencies are and what that means for fantasy football.
It’s important to note that coaches and schemes are constantly changing and evolving, so while this piece is meant to highlight differences between coaching tendencies, it is by no means a guarantee that teams won’t switch things up from their norm each season. This is only meant to highlight some of the more likely tendency changes that we could see in 2023 under a new coaching staff.
San Francisco 49ers — Steve Wilks, new defensive coordinator
Looking at some of the biggest differences between Steve Wilks' last season as a defensive play caller in Cleveland in 2019 versus what the 49ers’ tendencies were under last year’s coaching staff:
| Defensive metric | Wilks tendency (2019) | 2022 tendency | Difference for 2023 projections |
| Base personnel | 13.3% | 27.6% | -14.3% |
| Nickel personnel | 83.8% | 71.4% | +12.4% |
| LB2 weekly average snap rate | 97.2% | 88.3% | +8.9% |
| Blitz rate | 40.0% | 22.7% | +17.3% |
| DB blitz rate | 26.5% | 11.3% | +15.2% |
| Single-high coverage rate | 61.1% | 54.3% | +6.8% |
The 49ers spent an above-average time in base personnel last season, which allowed Azeez Al-Shaair to get some decent playing time behind locked-in starters Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. With Al-Shaair off to Tennessee and a less-steady Oren Burks likely to be the team’s LB3, it would make sense for Wilks’ heavy rate of nickel personnel to take over in 2023, allowing Warner, and Greenlaw, specifically, to not share the field with other linebackers.
Wilks also showed more of a tendency to blitz both his linebackers and defensive backs in his last stint as a defensive coordinator, which wasn’t a real tendency of the 49ers this past season. Warner has had success as a blitzer on a decent sample of about 60 attempts per season since 2019, which has resulted in seven sacks over that span, so being more involved rushing the passer could increase his production ceiling as well but potentially at the cost of tackle opportunities.
Since the 49ers drafted Talanoa Hufanga in 2021, he’s totaled just 60 pass-rush attempts on over 1,000 passing-down snaps despite flashing upside in that role during his time at USC. In his final two seasons in college, Hufanga racked up six sacks and 18 pressures on 79 attempts and added two more sacks last season in the NFL. Hufanga has a knack for getting after the quarterback, and with more opportunities and a higher snap rate closer to the line of scrimmage under Wilks, he could pay dividends for IDP managers in 2023.
New Orleans Saints — Joe Woods, new defensive coordinator
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.