- Jahmyr Gibbs takes the top spot: The Detroit Lions running back ranks ahead of Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey, in large part thanks to the consistently good play of the Lions offense.
- Chaos outside of the top 20: More than one-third of NFL teams are expected to use either a two- or three-man backfield rotation, creating uncertainty for several running backs outside the top 20 and leaving room for significant movement in the rankings throughout the offseason.
- Bijan Robinson ranks second: Robinson has finished among the top three fantasy running backs in each of the past two seasons, with more than 1,400 rushing yards each year.
Tier 1
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs is the only running back to average at least 21 PPR points per game in each of the last two seasons, combining elite rushing efficiency, double-digit touchdown production and over 500 receiving yards. David Montgomery's departure removes the main factor that had previously capped his goal-line ceiling. Detroit’s offensive line is the primary concern after dropping from second to 13th in PFF run-blocking grade last season. Two more starters were replaced this offseason, adding further uncertainty to an area central to Gibbs’ production. New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has shown a willingness to feature a lead back heavily, so a dramatic shift in usage is unlikely. The same talented supporting cast that creates slight competition for touches also helps Detroit remain one of the league's best offenses. The other elite running backs at a similar ADP carry comparable or greater uncertainty, which keeps Gibbs at the top of the position.
2. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson has finished among the top-three fantasy running backs in each of the last two seasons, combining over 1,400 rushing yards and at least 60 receptions per year. The replacement of Tyler Allgeier with Brian Robinson Jr. at backup is a lateral move at worst for his goal-line outlook. Kevin Stefanski's history of featuring a lead back heavily when the personnel warrants it is an encouraging sign, as is his track record of prioritizing the running back position going back to his time with Dalvin Cook in Minnesota. The Atlanta offensive line is the primary concern, with Jake Matthews posting a career-low PFF run-blocking grade and Kaleb McGary’s retirement forcing Atlanta to sign Jawaan Taylor, who profiles more as a pass protector than a run blocker. Robinson is competing with Jahmyr Gibbs for the top running back spot, with Gibbs holding a slight edge due to Detroit's offensive track record and fewer questions up front.
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