- Lawrence emerging: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has emerged as a real-life and fantasy star for the better part of the last two months.
- Prescott elevating Cowboys offense: The Dallas Cowboys have arguably fielded the NFL’s single-best offense since getting Dak Prescott back under center.
- Injuries to keep an eye on: There are seven separate key injury situations to monitor at the position this week.
Estimated reading time: 17 minutes
Week 15 is here, sp it’s truly a great day to be great. Today’s goal is to break down the week’s key fantasy football questions facing the quarterback position before producing the group’s specific ranks. Updated ranks throughout the week from myself and the rest of the PFF Fantasy crew can be accessed with PFF+.
Take a bow, Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks, accounting for 10 total touchdowns since his last interception while making life difficult for defenses of all shapes and sizes. Only Joe Burrow has a higher PFF pass grade than the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick over the last six weeks of action, as Lawrence has routinely overcome life as the position’s co-leader in most dropped passes this season.
Trevor Lawrence dimes on three straight throws pic.twitter.com/6UgUHjmBrL
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 12, 2022
Overall, T-Law has posted QB4, QB9, QB28, QB9, QB10, QB5, QB18 and QB1 performances in his last eight games, he’s a no-doubt top-10 option at the position down the stretch despite back-to-back incoming difficult matchups against the Cowboys and New York Jets.
The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer on December 16, 2021. How the times have changed. Credit to head coach Doug Pederson for getting one of the most-hyped quarterback prospects in recent memory to look the part for the better part of the last two months.
Has Tua Tagovailoa been figured out?
Probably not. Even back-to-back relatively porous performances weren’t enough to push Tua off the top of the leaderboard as PFF’s top-graded passer (86.6) while his marks in yards per attempt (8.7, No. 1) and passer rating (108.2, No. 2) also help demonstrate the reality that 2022 has been far more good than bad for Tua believers.
Still, Sunday night’s inaccurate performance against a banged-up Los Angeles Chargers defense was certainly a bit alarming, as Tua posted personal season-low marks in yards per attempt (5.2) and PFF passing grade (45.0). His 45.8% adjusted completion rate – the first time any NFL quarterback has posted a mark under 50% among 378 instances of a player having at least 25 dropbacks in a game this season — is the most concerning.
Further complicating matters is the Miami Dolphins’ Week 15 matchup in Buffalo. Las Vegas seems concerned considering the Dolphins’ 17.5-point implied total is tied for the third-lowest mark of the week. Ultimately, Tua is a low-end QB1 in this tough draw – he’s especially not someone who needs to be trusted in the fantasy playoffs if Tyreek Hill (ankle) is forced out of action.
Last week was a step forward on the field for Deshaun Watson
It’s not like there was much room to go but up after Watson’s dismal performance against the Houston Texans. Still, the Cleveland Browns’ franchise quarterback managed to put far more good on the tape against the Cincinnati Bengals, easily improving his numbers in yards per attempt (6.6 vs. 6), passer rating (79.1 vs. 53.4) and adjusted completion rate (83.3% vs. 57.1%).
The latter mark especially helps paint how much better Watson was in Week 14. Adjusted completion rate helps account for drops, and the Browns didn’t exactly do Watson a ton of favors in that department last week. Overall, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones officially dropped a four-yard fade on fourth down that should have cut the Bengals’ lead to one score with 5:29 remaining in the game just one play after Amari Cooper managed to get two hands on the ball in the back of the end zone. The latter incompletion wasn’t officially ruled a drop, but Cooper’s case of the butterfingers on fourth-and-4 with just 3:46 remaining in the game did.
Throw in a failed fourth-and-one conversion from Jacoby Brissett that featured an overthrow to an open DPJ on what probably should have been a touchdown, and it’s clear the Browns’ 10-point performance in Week 14 was far more impressive offensively than their defense-aided 27-14 win over the Texans in Week 13.
Up next is a Baltimore Ravens secondary that hasn’t exactly done a great job limiting opposing downfield passing attacks this season:
Ravens defenses on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield
- EPA per pass play: +1.3 (No. 32)
- Yards per attempt: 19.9 (No. 32)
- Explosive pass-play rate: 58.1% (No. 32)
- Passer rating: 108.4 (No. 26)
How good has this Dallas Cowboys offense been since Dak Prescott returned?
Pretty, pretty, pretty good. The Cowboys have gone 6-1 since Prescott returned in Week 7, looking every bit like one of the league’s better offenses along the way:
- Points per game: 35.7 (No. 1)
- EPA per play: +0.135 (No. 3)
- Yards per play: 6.1 (No. 5)
- Touchdown drive rate: 39.7 (No. 1)
The scary part is that Prescott has achieved all this while posting the worst PFF passing grade (66.8) of his career. His marks in yards per attempt (7.4) and adjusted completion rate (74.3%) also aren’t too far off his career-low numbers. Of course, Amari Cooper‘s absence and the banged-up offensive line haven’t made things as easy for Prescott as they sometimes were in past seasons, but just realize this Cowboys offense might even have another level to ascend to – which is a scary thought for NFL defenses.
Don’t be surprised if Prescott flirts with some bigger counting numbers than usual against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked defense in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
Has 2022 statistically been the best or worst Minnesota Vikings season of Kirk Cousins’ career?
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