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NFL Week 16 Fantasy Football: Buy Low & Sell High Targets Based on High-Value Opportunities

Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) runs after the catch as Green Bay Packers free safety Darnell Savage (26) defends during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from last week saw healthy doses of end-zone targets, air yards, routes run, deep targets and goal-line carries.

Gabriel Davis owned 12 targets inside the 5-yard line entering Week 15 — 18th-most in the league. He scored twice when his routes increased with Emmanuel Sanders out. Trust the process.

To find Week 16’s version of Davis in the fantasy football rankings or as a waiver wire pickup, fantasy managers can leverage PFF’s fantasy stats tool to identify players who saw the most high-value opportunities but failed to cash in.


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These guys are the perfect “buy-low” candidates and will soon exceed fantasy expectations for weekly fantasy matchups, large-field DFS contests or player props.

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END-ZONE TARGETS

Most end-zone targets | Week 15
Player End-zone targets End-zone touchdowns
Hunter Henry 3 2
Mark Andrews 3 2
A.J. Green 2 0
Marvin Jones Jr. 2 0
DeVante Parker 2 0
Mike Williams 2 0
Kenny Golladay 2 0
Jakobi Meyers 2 0
Allen Lazard 2 0
Gabriel Davis 2 2
Darnell Mooney 2 0

Mark Andrews is not human. The Baltimore Ravens playmaker looks more like a cyborg than a normal tight end, ranking sixth in target share (28%) over the last four weeks.

With Tyler Huntley under center for Baltimore in Week 15, Andrews hauled in two scores on three end-zone targets. Look for him to keep terrifying opposing defenses regardless of who is under center. The Ravens take on the Bengals, who are second in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends over the last four weeks.

DeVante Parker stepped up big for the Miami Dolphins in Week 15 with the team lacking rookie sensation Jaylen Waddle. The big-bodied wideout demanded a 36% target share and extended his streak of four receptions in all games played in 2021 to seven. He did leave some points on the board, though, going 0-for-2 on his end-zone targets.

He will face an uphill battle to score on Monday night considering the New Orleans Saints have allowed the fifth-fewest attempts to WRs in the end zone and a league-low passer rating to receivers inside the 5-yard line (39.6) this season.

Mike Williams was set to have a massive game versus the Kansas City Chiefs. He was fed three targets inside the 5-yard line on the Chargers’ opening drive but came up short.

Big Mike is tied with Diontae Johnson for third in the NFL in targets inside the 5-yard line (20) but has just three receiving touchdowns to show for it. Eventually, he will experience positive touchdown regression based on his sheer volume of high-value targets.

Kenny Golladay’s 12 targets inside the 5-yard line are the most by any player with zero touchdowns this season. Jake Fromm taking over under center could present Golladay’s best chance of finding the end zone, as the Georgia product wasted no time targeting Big Blue’s No. 1 wideout. Kenny G saw a 20.7 aDOT on three targets — including one in the end zone — from the Giants' plucky quarterback.

Keep Allen Lazard’s two end-zone targets from last week in mind while constructing DFS lineups for Christmas Day. He slightly edged out MVS in terms of routes run in Week 15 and could easily hit paydirt versus a Browns defense that ranks last in TD rate allowed to opposing slot WRs.

Lazard has led the Packers in slot routes since Randall Cobb’s injury.

Darnell Mooney has achieved alpha status in Chicago. The talented second-year wideout got the WR1 treatment like he has all season, running a route on 98% of Justin Fields’ dropbacks on Monday night. He and Fields failed to connect on two attempts in the end zone, but I’d bet that doesn’t happen for two weeks straight.

The Bears take on Seattle in Week 16 — the Seahawks have allowed the third-most receptions to wide receivers over the last four weeks. Mooney is too cheap on DraftKings at just $5,400.

Related content for you: Week 16 fantasy football best waiver wire pickups, trade candidates and start or sit roster decisions based on PFF routes run via Andrew Erickson

Other wide receivers/tight ends who should experience positive touchdown regression based on their target volume inside the 5-yard line include A.J. Green, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Allen Robinson, Chase Claypool, Darren Waller and Courtland Sutton.

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS

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