The final weeks of the fantasy football regular season are crucial for teams looking to secure playoff positions. There are two weeks left in most fantasy football regular seasons, so let's dive into the data to help set the best lineups for this critical Week 13.
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As usual, here are some of the tougher start/sit decisions to consider heading into Week 13.
START: EDGE KWITY PAYE, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
It’s always going to be tough trusting a rookie defensive lineman at this point in the season, but Paye has earned that trust over the past several weeks. He has tallied a sack in each of his past three games while putting up some of the best pass-rush metrics among edge defenders in the NFL. Since Week 9, Paye has posted 18 pressures with the three sacks and an 84.3 pass-rush grade, which ranks seventh among edge defenders.
Paye faced his toughest competition of the season in Week 12 against Tampa Bay going up against Tom Brady, Donovan Smith and Tristan Wirfs and still managed a sack. The Bucs give up the fewest sacks per game in the NFL this year (1.4), which makes his feat even more impressive. Paye’s competition in Week 13 is not nearly as prolific, as he faces a Texans team that ranks 28th in the NFL in pass-blocking grade (53.0). Paye should be able to keep his sack streak alive this week if he continues to play as well as he has over the past few weeks.
Kwity Paye splits | 2021
|Weeks||Pass-rush grade (ED rank)||Pressures (ED rank)||Sacks|
|1-8||61.7 (T-75th)||8 (T-90th)||0|
|9-12||84.3 (8th)||18 (T-7th)||3|
SIT: EDGE JOSH ALLEN, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Allen has bounced back nicely in 2021 after a down year in 2020. Relative to expectations, he has been one of the top-performing edge defenders this season for IDP purposes. With 5.5 sacks and a career-high 54 tackles, we would be hard-pressed to keep him out of any IDP lineups. This week may be the week to do so, however, as Allen gets a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, who are the highest-graded pass-blocking team in the NFL (80.6).
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Allen’s primary matchup this week will be left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who owns the highest pass-blocking grade in the NFL (89.9) among offensive linemen. Whitworth has allowed just 10 pressures on 407 pass-blocking snaps all season, while Allen hasn’t registered a single pressure in either of his past two games. We may be relying on Allen for tackles more than anything this week, which isn’t ideal for our IDP defensive linemen. Week 13 could be a good time to find a better option.
START: DI JAVON HARGRAVE, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW YORK JETS