Fantasy Football: IDP risers and fallers from NFL free agency

Estimated reading time: 12 minutes


With NFL free agency opening the door for a flurry of signings across the NFL, players moved to new homes and shifted the IDP landscape for fantasy football managers to sort through.

It’s still very early in the offseason to lock in these “winners and losers” for Week 1, but as of now, this is where I’m at with what has transpired.

Risers

LB Leo Chenal, Washington Commanders

As highlighted back in January, Chenal’s new home and situation could create a significant boost in his IDP value, and landing with the Commanders could be an ideal scenario for that value boost to come to fruition. After being buried on the Kansas City Chiefs’ depth chart for the entirety of his rookie contract, the former Day 2 linebacker may finally have a new home to shine and deliver on the IDP potential many had hoped for coming out of Wisconsin back in 2022.

Chenal has never exceeded 450 defensive snaps in the regular season in his NFL career, and assuming that the Commanders don’t bring back Bobby Wagner or another more experienced starting linebacker, he should potentially double his former career best in snaps in 2026. As of now, Frankie Luvu is the lone linebacker on the roster with starting experience, and his role as a player to be used off the edge quite a bit is unlikely to change, creating a significant hole for Chenal to fill.

Whenever Chenal has been on the field, he’s typically delivered above-average tackle efficiency for the position, which has fed the optimism that he can continue to do so in a full-time role. With his new landing spot and encouraging three-year contract, he should get the opportunity that IDP managers have been waiting for, and turn him into a potential weekly IDP starter for at least this coming season.

LB Devin Lloyd, Carolina Panthers

Lloyd is coming off a career year in terms of his PFF grades, both overall and as a coverage defender, cracking the top five at his position in both categories. As an IDP, Lloyd has been somewhat disappointing as a former first-round pick who just never settled into an every-down role over most of his career in Jacksonville while also coming in well below expectations as a tackler. Lloyd has finished in the bottom 30th percentile in tackles versus expected in each of his first four seasons. 

With Lloyd landing in Carolina, he should be viewed as the clear LB1 for that defense as things currently stand because Christian Rozeboom is no longer on the roster and Trevin Wallace consistently disappointed in his run as the green-dot defender last year. With that every-down role, Lloyd will get more volume than his previous two seasons, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll likely crack over 1,000 defensive snaps for the first time in his NFL regular-season career as well. With that volume and a new defense to work in, Lloyd should see his production also hit new heights, which can only increase his IDP value heading into the 2026 season.

LB Devin Bush, Chicago Bears

This past year was a resurgent season for Bush and both his IDP and NFL value after several seasons where that former first-round draft value was floundering, as he mostly acted as a depth option for his teams. However, Bush played the most defensive snaps (873) in a season since his rookie year (889), allowing for a career-best LB22 finish on the season. 

Bush delivered across the board, both in his PFF grades and his tackling ability, cracking the 85th percentile in tackles versus expected as one of the most efficient players at his position. He did this without a true every-down role, averaging 83% of Cleveland's defensive snaps on the season next to Carson Schwesinger. Bush will now likely play an LB2 role again in Chicago next to T.J. Edwards, though it’s a better scenario than returning to being a depth option again. Making this better than the average LB2 spot is that Dennis Allen’s defense relied on two full-time linebackers last season, which is encouraging for Bush should they continue with that tendency.

There’s no guarantee that Bush will be as efficient as he was in 2025, especially in a new defense and considering that hasn’t been the norm for his NFL career, but landing in a spot where he’s going to get strong playing time should have him in play as a weekly starting option in deeper IDP formats.

ED Jaelan Phillips, Carolina Panthers

Phillips earned a significant new contract with the Panthers, signing on for four years at $30 million per year, making him the clear top edge defender along this Carolina defensive line. The Panthers needed a significant presence along that line, and as long as Phillips is healthy, he should be in a great spot to produce weekly IDP production.

Not only should Phillips play a high rate of snaps for his new defense, but he’s more than due for some positive sack regression after really strong underlying metrics in 2025 that didn’t quite translate to his raw production. Phillips looked much closer to his 2022 peak this past season, landing in the top 90th percentile in expected sacks despite playing on two different teams. Phillips is also a strong tackler for the position, and with a volume-heavy role in Carolina, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him return high-end ED2 value in 2026. For now, based on his injury history, he’ll likely come in as a low-end ED2/high-end ED3 in 2026 rankings, but certainly has higher upside potential if he can avoid injury.

ED Odafe Oweh, Washington Commanders

The Commanders were perhaps the most EDGE-needy team at the time of this signing, bringing in Oweh, who needed to be treated as more than just a rotational piece in the way he was in 2025. Even without a clear starting role, Oweh still delivered a career-high 81.0 PFF pass-rush grade (including playoffs), with his best game coming in the wild-card round, where he landed three sacks against the New England Patriots.

Oweh’s career transitioned from strong playing time but a lack of sack production to less playing time this past year and more sack production over the last two seasons. Landing in Washington, he should have no problem getting his playing time back up to an ideal snap rate, and if he can add in that strong sack production that we’ve seen over the past two years, then he could creep into starting lineups on a more weekly basis. At the very least, Oweh should get plenty of snaps on a defensive line desperate for his help, and non-shallow IDP formats should have him on their radars.

Honorable Mentions:

  • LB Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles
    • There was some talk about Nakobe Dean potentially re-signing in Philadelphia, which would have been awful for Campbell’s IDP value, but with Dean now in Las Vegas, there’s a very clear path to him regaining his starting role in Year 2.
  • S Sydney Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
    • Brown – a former Day 2 pick – has been waiting for a starting spot since being drafted, and now with Reed Blankenship’s (Houston) departure, he might just get his shot, though there’s still plenty of time for that to change.
  • ED Boye Mafe, Cincinnati Bengals
    • The Bengals have significant needs at the edge position, even with two former first-round picks, Myles Murphy and Shemar Stewart, on the roster. Mafe brings experience as a starter and decent production potential to be a deep league IDP option again.

Fallers

LB Trevin Wallace, Carolina Panthers

Wallace emerged as Carolina’s lone every-down linebacker in 2025, overtaking Christian Rozeboom after just the first month of the season. It appeared that the team was looking to him as their linebacker of the future, which, luckily for IDP managers, doesn’t appear to be the case after they just signed Devin Lloyd to a three-year contract. Wallace has been one of the most ineffective tacklers at the position over the past two seasons, ranking in the bottom third percentile in each of his first two seasons in tackles versus expected. Another year of Wallace as the lone every-down linebacker would have likely left a lot of meat on the bone for IDP managers in 2026.

With Lloyd in place as the team’s new LB1, Wallace’s role is likely to revert to that of a part-time starter, making him only an IDP option in deep IDP formats. Wallace could still improve his efficiency since it’s early in his NFL career, though he’ll have to do so as a deeper league option only for now, and save the majority of IDP managers from the disappointment if he can’t improve.

LB Isaiah McDuffie, Green Bay Packers

McDuffie is coming off a really productive 2025 season, filling in for both Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper as a starter throughout the season. He was also a 97th percentile scorer in tackles versus expected (+24.7), which made him an immediate IDP starter any time one of Walker or Cooper was out. McDuffie also played well on just over 500 defensive snaps, where it wouldn’t have been a big surprise if the team allowed him to just hold the starting role following Walker’s departure (Las Vegas) in free agency. Unfortunately, the team traded for the significantly more experienced Zaire Franklin, which likely keeps McDuffie as nothing more than an injury fill-in for another year.

Franklin is coming off an undoubtedly disappointing season as an IDP and NFL linebacker in 2025; however, a fresh start and being put in a position to play an every-down role once again can allow him to bounce back. Given the team trading for Franklin, as well as his four years of starting experience, he’ll be the clear option over the very productive McDuffie, and for IDP managers who have been holding onto him, can safely move on with Franklin and Cooper set to start.

S Malachi Moore, New York Jets

Moore had a surprisingly effective rookie season, as he was almost immediately thrust into a full-time starting position, leading to 14 games started and a S40 finish on the year. Moore's expectations in Year 1 were low as a Day 3 pick in the NFL draft, but he took advantage of his opportunities, even finishing among the 71st percentile in tackles versus expected for his position. 

While it looked like Moore was going to be in a decent position to start again in Year 2, the Jets traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick and also signed Dane Belton in free agency, essentially crushing any hopes for Moore to start again. Fitzpatrick has been among the league’s top safeties for several years now, even coming off a disappointing IDP season; he should be capable of bouncing back as he finds a new home once again. As for Belton, he has experience as a starter, and while his contract is just a one-year deal, it’s likely enough to keep Moore on the bench for at least one more year while he continues to develop.

Honorable mentions
  • LB Dre Greenlaw, Free Agent
    • Getting released is never a good thing, though the Denver Broncos invested in Greenlaw to lead the defense just last offseason. After a very disappointing season, they chose to bring back both Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad instead. Whether another team decides to invest in Greenlaw remains to be seen.
  • LB Ivan Pace Jr., Minnesota Vikings
    • Pace was relegated to a backup role in favor of Eric Wilson this past year. While he could have hit the open market for a shot to get a starting role again, both he and Wilson return to the team, likely meaning a return to 2025’s usage, which made Pace irrelevant for IDP.
  • CB Jahdae Barron, Denver Broncos
    • Ja’Quan McMillian served as the team’s primary nickel corner in 2025, which kept Barron off the field, though it looked like McMillian was going to depart in free agency. Unfortunately for Barron, the team tendered McMillian, who will now likely stay with the team and make Barron’s path to snaps difficult. 
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