Welcome to the Week 16 Funnel Defense Report, where we examine trends in how defenses are most commonly attacked. It is meant to help narrow our focus from overall game selection, down to the “run versus pass” level. We as fantasy gamers, like NFL game planners, ideally seek paths of least resistance.
The esteemed Adam Levitan coined the term “funnel defense,” or “pass funnel defense” several years ago. It has become common parlance among DFS players and other fantasy aficionados, and refers to defenses that are simultaneously soft against the pass and stout against the run.
Identifying such characteristics is not a one-time task, as injury and performance variation create an evolving landscape. In this space we will leverage, among other resources, up-to-date PFF defensive grades and metrics to stay on top of these constant changes and difference-making fantasy trends.
(For brevity’s sake, all references to pass or run rates/percentages are in terms of neutral game situations. Unless otherwise stated, we will reference one-score situations (plus/minus seven points) to get a truer representation of game plan.)
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers started the season as a pass funnel, but their run defense eroded once front-seven injuries hit. They lost defensive end Arik Armstead, and linebacker Reuben Foster couldn’t consistently stay on the field. Yet, from Week 9 until now, Foster is our best-graded linebacker against the run and is first in run-stop percentage. Since their Week 11 bye, San Francisco is allowing 3.1 yards per carry to running backs. During that time, their league-worst-graded pass coverage is surrendering the eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.1). Opponents ran against them at the sixth-highest rate through Week 11, and are running at the 14th-highest since.
Week 16: With Leonard Fournette set to return, the plan will likely revolve around him. However, with the 49ers run defense playing so well, a heavier lean on Blake Bortles may be optimal. The Jaguars are only the 16th-most run-heavy offense over the last month, after ranking second before then. Bortles’ recent stretch of solid play might be changing minds. San Francisco is allowing, by far, the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the last month. Yet, they are giving up the 10th-most to quarterbacks on the sixth-fewest pass attempts. The 49ers won’t be able to play the same brand of keep-away they’ve executed lately, leading to more opportunities for the Jaguars – if they attack the pass funnel.
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.